Bitcoin (BTC) price swings continue to stay historically muted, with the distribution of coins among long-term investors serving as the primary influence on variations in one-month realized volatility, reports Glassnode.
Research from Glassnode placed long-term holder inventory far ahead of any other variables evaluated. Illiquid supply took the second spot, trailed closely by both network activity metrics and absolute funding rates, whereas total market capitalization placed much lower on the ranking. “The primary catalyst behind low volatility isn’t market size. It’s who actually owns the tokens,” the organization stated.
Bitcoin currently changes hands close to $78,000 following a temporary push above $82,000 earlier last week, and specialists at Bitfinex anticipate that this trading band will persist in the short term. “Our outlook on BTC stays positive, yet the prerequisites for an enduring rally have not materialized yet,” the researchers remarked. “Until that happens, the data points toward ongoing sideways movement with a slight upward inclination, rather than a definitive breakout.”
Bitcoin supply in profit nears historical mean
Over 71% of the entire bitcoin supply currently rests in a profitable state, based on the Bitfinex report. When bitcoin traded past $82,500 over its May consolidation period, that metric sat near 67%, the team pointed out, while the average purchase price for short-term owners dropped down to $68,400 during the summer months.
“Matching spot prices presently activate a larger quantity of profitable tokens, building a larger reservoir of potential selling pressure whenever valuations test past local peaks,” the researchers explained. “Additionally, the portion of supply in profit nears its long-term average of 74.7%. Crossing above that benchmark has historically signaled the shift from bearish cycles to bullish ones.”
Digital asset market valuation minus bitcoin, ether, and stablecoins has expanded by $51.2 billion starting from early September, climbing past figures recorded in the middle of August, the analysts noted, while mentioning that ongoing ETF inflows along with expanding stablecoin reserves continue to offer backing.
“The key indicator for this week centers on whether ETF capital flows remain positive through the September 9 repurchase event and the September 11 Consumer Price Index report, even while the two-year yield remains above 4.34%,” Bitfinex noted. “An active market that keeps purchasing despite elevated yields on the short end of the curve will signal that investors no longer view benchmark interest rates as the ultimate limiting factor.”
Originally published at https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-09-08-bitcoin-volatility-remains-subdued-as-supply-in-profit-nears-historical-bear-to-bull-transition-level-analysts-413754.
