The Block | Precious Madubuike
Bitcoin could receive stronger backing than gold should market participants scale back their exchange-traded fund hedges, according to analysts at JPMorgan.
Both bitcoin and gold ETFs experienced capital inflows following the late July Federal Reserve gathering, at which point the debasement trade made a comeback, noted JPMorgan analysts headed by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou within a Wednesday briefing. Nevertheless, this strategy has cooled over the past week as real bond yields climbed and the Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act, the research team reported.
Demand for gold ETFs has rebounded more robustly than that for bitcoin. Gold funds have now entirely made up for earlier outflows from this year, whereas bitcoin ETFs have only recovered roughly half, the experts pointed out. They added that interest in bitcoin ETFs also tapered off over recent days, leaving greater upside potential should headlines turn positive.
Institutional positioning remains high
Futures market positioning across both bitcoin and gold stays elevated, indicating that institutional players have continued backing both asset classes, the analysts mentioned.
The primary variance lies in ETF short interest metrics. Short positions tied to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, known as IBIT, hover near annual highs, the commentators observed. Conversely, short interest regarding the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, or GLD, sits below its historical average level.
“This contrast suggests that bitcoin still faces an overall more sceptical positioning backdrop than gold, perhaps due to more elevated hedging demand, despite the recent inflows and build up of futures positioning,” the analysts said.
Furthermore, the put-to-call open interest measurement registers higher for IBIT than for GLD, which the researchers indicated points toward heavier hedging activity surrounding bitcoin.
“While we recognize that other factors might also affect the bitcoin and gold trajectories going forward, from a positioning point of view, the more elevated short interest in the IBIT vs. GLD ETF could create more support for bitcoin vs gold from here if hedging demand is reduced,” the analysts concluded.
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Originally published at https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-09-17-jpmorgan-bitcoin-gold-415421.
