Experts note that Bitcoin’s recent push past the $80,000 mark is supported by genuine buying pressure, although the lasting power of this upward movement is still being examined.
Firms like K33, Nexo, and Sygnum all highlight robust institutional and exchange-traded fund inflows as a primary catalyst, with K33 mentioning the highest daily ETP inflow recorded since November 2024 and Nexo pointing to nearly $1 billion directed into spot BTC ETFs.
Earlier in the week, Bitcoin touched $86,000 for the initial time since January as liquidations of crypto short positions escalated. At the moment of writing, Bitcoin’s price fluctuates around $83,800.
“The current pullback in BTC has been significantly milder and briefer compared to the major bear markets of 2013, 2017, and 2021, aligning with our projections following a milder preceding bull run,” remarked Vetle Lunde of K33 in a Tuesday publication. “We continue to perceive the cycle bottom as already formed, with neither sentiment nor derivatives exposure suggesting significant downside in the near future, while Bitcoin still has ground to cover to catch up to equities and gold.”
The regulatory environment has delivered an additional boost. Stephen Coltman, macroeconomic lead at 21shares, highlights the Securities and Exchange Commission’s Innovation Exemption alongside the CFTC’s post-Clarity Act rulemaking as proof that regulatory headway in the crypto sector persists despite setbacks in the Senate. Furthermore, K33 suggests that clearing up uncertainties regarding the Federal Reserve’s choice and the Clarity Act vote helped trigger the breakout.
During the previous week, the SEC introduced a five-year regulatory grace period, permitting trading platforms to facilitate tokenized asset trading under specific criteria without needing official registration as national securities exchanges or broker-dealers for regulatory compliance.
“This has spurred a wave of enthusiasm toward protocols built specifically around blockchain market-making and tokenized asset trading, while also fueling a broader sentiment recovery across the entire digital asset market,” Coltman stated.
Supportive macro backdrop still a risk
Geopolitical conditions offer a more favorable backdrop, yet they present a persistent risk. Daniela Hathorn, senior market strategist at Capital.com, mentions that declining Treasury yields and oil prices help counteract the effects of stricter Federal Reserve monetary policy, while also drawing attention to upcoming geopolitical events as potential triggers.
“From a technical perspective, the $87,000 to $88,000 range serves as the immediate resistance barrier, with $90,000 acting as the subsequent critical psychological milestone,” Hathorn explained. “An inability to push higher might trigger some profit-taking following the swift advance, with $84,000 to $85,000 serving as the initial zone to monitor and $80,000 growing in significance beneath that.”
Conversely, Nexo adopts a more conservative outlook, observing that trading volume has decreased, market breadth has contracted, and derivatives positioning appears less compelling. Analysts at Nexo add that derivatives convey a cautious message because leverage is climbing while remaining controllable, potentially exposing BTC to profit-taking or a consolidation phase.
While K33 interprets the movement as proof that the cycle floor is likely behind us, Nexo concentrates more on whether this action can consolidate into a lasting upward trend instead of remaining primarily a short-covering rally.
At the same time, Tom Lee of Fundstrat asserted that a digital asset bull market has commenced.
“We are convinced a crypto bull market has begun, having kicked off late in June, propelled by various elements such as a capital rotation from AI back into crypto, improving crypto fundamentals focused on both artificial intelligence and tokenization, and finally, the conclusion of the traditional four-year cycle,” Lee remarked earlier in the week.
Originally published at https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-09-23-bitcoin-breakout-etf-inflows-analysts-k33-nexo-resistance-416182.
