Key points
- Bitcoin dropped below $84,000 as the United States 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest mark since 2007.
- An analyst estimated the chances of an October Federal Reserve interest rate hike at over 70% while the Treasury organized a bond repurchase totaling up to $6 billion.
- Bitcoin has finished September in positive territory for three consecutive years, whereas October has historically produced an average return of 19.92%, based on CoinGlass figures.
Bitcoin dropped below $84,000 during Asian trading hours on Thursday, retreating to $83,200 after the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its peak level since 2007.
The 10-year yield finished Wednesday at 5.11%, moving up from 4.96% on Tuesday, and peaked at 5.13% during the intraday session. CME connected the bond selloff partly to stronger domestic corporate data and rising petroleum prices.
“BTC has held up well even with surging rates and a strong USD,” James Stanley, senior market analyst for global macro at FOREX.com wrote on Wednesday. Stanley pointed to $82,833 as the next critical price mark to monitor if the downward correction extends further.
The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.1%, reaching its highest level since 2007. Source: TradingView
Elevated Treasury yields provide investors with increased returns on sovereign debt and can elevate loan expenses, which might pressure Bitcoin alongside other risk-oriented assets.
The US Department of the Treasury announced Wednesday a maximum limit of $6 billion for its Thursday buyback targeting bonds with roughly 20 to 30 years left to maturity, forming part of a broader initiative designed to boost liquidity in long-dated fixed-income securities.
Related: Bitcoin ETFs add $347M as BTC falls below $84K after topping $87K
Fed hike bets test Bitcoin’s $84,000 footing
Bas Kooijman, who serves as CEO and asset manager at DHF Capital, stated that more robust American business activity and elevated energy costs had lifted expectations regarding additional Federal Reserve monetary tightening.
“Markets now assign around a 70% probability for a hike in October, up from roughly 55% yesterday, while expectations of additional tightening over the coming months have also increased. This repricing continues to underpin both Treasury yields and the dollar,” Kooijman remarked within a market commentary provided to Cointelegraph on Thursday.
With less than five weeks remaining until the October 28 meeting involving US monetary policymakers, CME Group’s Fedwatch utility indicates a 75.3% chance of a rate increase to the 4.00%-4.25% bracket.
Related: Institutions held crypto through 50% drawdown, Bitwise finds
An October rate increase would push short-term financing expenses higher, potentially driving up the costs associated with dollar-denominated leveraged Bitcoin positions. BTC might experience downward pressure prior to any final announcement if upcoming statistics drive yields and the greenback upward.
“Resilient labor data or further hawkish signals could extend the rise in yields and support the dollar, while softer figures could prompt traders to scale back expectations of an October move and limit the currency’s gains,” Kooijman explained.
As “Red September” colors the leaves, Bitcoin stays green
Cryptocurrency traders often refer to these months as “Red September” and “Uptober” because of their contrasting historical performance records. Bitcoin registered losses across five consecutive Septembers spanning 2017 to 2021, whereas October closed higher in 10 out of 13 finished years according to statistics gathered by CoinGlass.
September has the lowest average return of any month in its table, at -2.34%. Source: CoinGlass
Nonetheless, Bitcoin has avoided closing September in negative territory since 2022. It recorded gains during September 2023, 2024, and 2025, and maintains a 7.35% increase thus far this month.
October has generated a mean growth rate of 19.92%, ranking just behind November. However, the anticipated “Uptober” rally failed to materialize during the previous year when Bitcoin dropped by 3.69%.
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This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
Originally published at https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-fall-84k-treasury-yield-hits-19-year-high?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound.
