QCP anticipates bitcoin to fluctuate between $80,000 and $90,000 throughout the fourth quarter, pointing to ETF activity as a primary driver for its outlook.
Bitcoin (BTC) hovered near $82,000 on Thursday, following a climb past $87,000 last Friday, which marked its peak since September 23. This pullback coincides with QCP Capital’s baseline projection that bitcoin will trade inside an $80,000 to $90,000 band during the fourth quarter.
Within its Q4 Digital Assets Market Outlook, QCP highlighted the $80,000 to $82,000 zone as an attractive accumulation area, while noting it would trim exposure near $88,000 to $90,000 if exchange-traded fund inflows fail to accelerate. QCP projects that ETF inflows will stay positive yet erratic, with petroleum costs elevated yet steady alongside ongoing uncertainty regarding the Clarity Act continuing to pressure the sector.
The organization’s optimistic scenario envisions bitcoin surging past $100,000, bolstered by consistent ETF accumulation, expansion in stablecoin liquidity, a Federal Reserve pause prompted by softer employment statistics, a weaker U.S. dollar, reduced real yields, and legislative headway on the Clarity Act. QCP stated it would rely on spot market demand to drive any breakout above the established band rather than relying on short covering by traders.
Conversely, in its pessimistic scenario, the institution foresees bitcoin dropping beneath the $68,000 to $70,000 threshold if regional conflict in the Middle East escalates, driving up crude prices and forcing additional Federal Reserve rate increases. QCP also mentioned renewed ETF redemptions and potential forced liquidations from a corporate bitcoin holder as triggers for this downside path.
U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs registered $487.1 million in net outflows on Wednesday, erasing the $118.8 million of net inflows from the prior day, according to figures compiled by The Block. BlackRock’s IBIT spearheaded the reductions with $207.7 million, trailed by Fidelity’s FBTC at $105.2 million and Ark Invest/21Shares’ ARKB at $101.7 million. These vehicles have accumulated $165.6 million in net withdrawals over the preceding five trading sessions following a previous $3.1 billion nine-day inflow streak.
Bitcoin ETF flows. Image: The Block.
Simultaneously, analysts at Glassnode noted that bitcoin had retreated from a selling wall located at $86,500 down toward multiple substantial buy orders, the largest of which centers around $81,000. The group anticipates these bids will act as a buffer against deeper losses.
Bitcoin moving into support. Image: Glassnode.
One year since bitcoin all-time high
Bitcoin’s October 6, 2025 peak surpassing $126,000 was followed almost immediately by the October 10 liquidation crash, from which the broader digital asset market never recovered. Twelve months later, Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo informed The Block that historical bitcoin cycles typically demand 12 to 13 months from cycle peaks to locate a bottom.
Nevertheless, bitcoin might have established its cyclical bottom sooner this time around, according to Perfumo. The cryptocurrency’s 54% correction down to its July trough is significantly milder than the typical 70% to 85% drawdowns observed in previous market cycles.
BTC price chart. Image: The Block.
“The introduction of spot exchange-traded funds introduced a fresh demographic of buyers, while a more accommodating regulatory landscape and the broader adoption of crypto across legacy financial institutions have strengthened the market’s underlying foundation,” Perfumo remarked. “With interest rates remaining elevated and capital facing fiercer competition from sectors like artificial intelligence, today’s bitcoin purchasers are accumulating despite a higher opportunity cost. This indicates that the investor base is putting capital to work with high conviction instead of simply chasing price momentum.”
Following the publication of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes on Wednesday, Capital.com Senior Financial Market Analyst Kyle Rodda observed that they leaned toward continued monetary tightening, although market participants were still pricing in a pause for the October meeting. Meanwhile, initial U.S. jobless claims registered at 197,000 on Thursday, tracking below the 200,000 median estimate, while the prior week’s metric was revised upward to 199,000.
Kraken’s Perfumo emphasized that long-term borrowing costs continue to stand as one of the most critical variables influencing bitcoin’s subsequent trajectory.
“Should financial conditions loosen, particularly if catalyzed by further policy measures involving liquidity injections, bitcoin could enjoy a faster path back toward its prior peak,” he stated. “U.S. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has previously signaled his preference for a trimmed balance sheet. Yet, with yields on long-term global government bonds trading near generational highs, the pressure to challenge a more restrictive central bank stance is mounting.”
Looking forward, the October 27–28 Federal Reserve gathering, the November 3 U.S. midterm elections, and the November 4 Treasury refunding announcement represent key dates to monitor throughout this quarter, the QCP analysts concluded.
Originally published at https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-08-bitcoin-q4-forecast-418052.
