Wagers were made right before the public rollout of two recent political surveys from the New York Times and Siena, an investigation indicates.
Academics from Vanderbilt University noted that a participant on Polymarket wagered close to $200,000 on October 31 regarding the potential re-election of Nebraska Senator Pete Ricketts. Exactly sixty minutes afterward, a Times/Siena survey emerged demonstrating Ricketts in the leading position.
An article published on Friday by the New York Times stated that while it remains unconfirmed whether the individual possessed insider details, they secured a profit exceeding $77,000.
The account holder also executed comparable sizeable wagers across alternative platforms such as Kalshi, the publication outlined.
“There is a sequence of conditions here that makes it difficult to dismiss as mere coincidence,” remarked Brett Goldstein from the Vanderbilt Institute of National Security. He added that it “demands deeper scrutiny.”
Polymarket confirmed it identified the transactions and is currently reviewing the matter. Conversely, Kalshi opted not to issue a statement.
Cointelegraph previously covered in April that an American military service member faced criminal charges after generating upwards of $400,000 via forecasting wagers reportedly leveraging confidential intelligence connected to a United States mission involving former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro.
Within an official release, the Department of Justice asserted that Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke participated in both designing and carrying out Operation Absolute Resolve, which culminated in the apprehension of Maduro at a dwelling in Caracas, Venezuela, during January.
Van Dyke allegedly leveraged this intelligence to acquire “yes” tokens within corresponding Polymarket agreements, encompassing titles like “Maduro out by January 31” and “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31,” according to the DOJ.
Originally published at https://cointelegraph.com/news/suspicious-prediction-market-activity-seen-before-election-poll-release-nyt?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound.
