Bitcoin’s momentum gauge is turning red, could send prices back below $60,000

Updated Nov 13, 2026, 7:20 a.m. EST. Published Nov 13, 2026, 7:14 a.m. EST.

3 min read

Summary

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A bitcoin BTC$69,253.98 momentum gauge is flashing red once more, and a replication of past historical behavior might push the value of the primary cryptocurrency under $60,000, a threshold unseen since July.

A shift toward negative territory within the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram indicates a downward turn in momentum, and the bar for this week has dropped beneath zero. This signal will receive confirmation if the bar stays negative when the weekly close occurs on Sunday.

This price action has already caught the attention of various analysts and cryptocurrency social media participants, who express apprehension regarding a more substantial descent.

“Bitcoin is headed lower. The technical indicators are flashing clear red signals. Weekly MACD rolling over with Bear Cross (Bearish),” Josh Taylor, founder and lead contributor of analytics firm 7th Key Financial, said on X.

Several other observers on X noted the bearish MACD signal, advising caution against anticipating an immediate bottom and a bullish rebound in BTC.

The central question concerns the potential depth of the decline, specifically whether valuations could drop to bitcoin’s 2026 low near $57,700, which represents an additional 16% fall from current values.

Historical precedent indicates this outcome is feasible.

Since November 2012, this indicator has turned bearish on 24 separate occasions. Among those instances, in 13 cases—representing approximately half—bitcoin declined by at least 16% measured from the price recorded when the signal achieved confirmation, according to research compiled by CoinDesk. These market corrections transpired prior to the MACD shifting back to a bullish state.

Historically, these pullbacks frequently unfolded rapidly. Five out of the 13 instances reached the 16% threshold within a single week following the signal, 10 achieved it within four weeks, and the median duration stood at three weeks. Back in November 2018, bitcoin experienced a 38% collapse inside the span of one week. In February 2014, it dropped 35% in a week. The most protracted instance was the August 2025 signal, requiring 12 weeks to reach that decline.

The corrections could turn out even more severe. In the most extreme scenarios, such as the signals from August 2014 and April 2022, bitcoin surrendered over half of its worth. Alternatively, they might remain more contained. On 11 occasions, the asset dropped less than 16%, a group that includes the most recent occurrence in June. Following that particular signal, bitcoin dipped merely 3% to $57,700 before mounting a recovery.

As is customary, historical performance offers no assurance of future outcomes, and no single indicator remains entirely dependable in isolation.

Nevertheless, this latest signal emerges at a juncture when institutional investors are withdrawing capital from spot ETFs alongside a firm U.S. dollar generating headwinds for risk assets. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

What’s trending

Bitcoin dips below $70,000 as Dollar Index hits 19-month high (CoinDesk): Bitcoin dropped beneath $70,000 for the first time since August while ether slid under $2,000, provoking extensive futures liquidations as the U.S. Dollar Index climbed to a 19-month peak.
SpaceX-Tesla merger talks put 30,000 bitcoin back in focus (CoinDesk): Discussions regarding a merger between Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Tesla, which could prompt an announcement as early as December, would consolidate 30,221 BTC valued at approximately $2.1 billion under a single entity without requiring new acquisitions.
DOJ gets court approval to seize $1.2 billion tied to North Korea’s Binance hack (CoinDesk): The Department of Justice secured judicial authorization to confiscate over $1.2 billion frozen subsequent to the October 29 Binance breach, an incident linked by the FBI to North Korea. More than $2.7 billion from the greater than $6 billion stolen is now frozen.
Anthropic’s IPO is about six times oversubscribed (Bloomberg): The upcoming initial public offering from Anthropic has attracted roughly six times the volume of orders compared to the shares available, with underwriters anticipated to prioritize existing backers during share distribution.

Today’s signal

Bitcoin’s weekly chart. (TradingView)

The visual representation displays bitcoin’s daily price fluctuations utilizing candlestick formatting accompanied by the MACD histogram situated in the lower section.

The technical indicator is descending beneath zero while bitcoin’s valuation fluctuates near its 200-week moving average. A decisive break downward would confirm the bearish reading of the MACD, potentially triggering a more severe market correction.