Oct 26, 2026, 7:53 a.m. EDT
3 min read
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Bitcoin BTC$84,459.46 is hovering near the $80,000 level seen on Saturday, remaining fairly quiet on the price action front. Major digital currencies such as ether ETH$2,490.55, XRP (XRP), solana (SOL), dogecoin DOGE$0.08295, and BNB BNB$748.57 are experiencing similarly sluggish conditions.
Conversely, the decentralized derivatives protocol Derive is generating lively interest. Representatives from the protocol revealed to CoinDesk that a trader established a $68 million position anticipating that BTC will surge past $90,000 immediately following the U.S. midterm elections in early November. Simultaneously, market activity shows a growing expectation for prices to exceed $100,000 prior to Christmas.
To break down the $68 million trade: on Oct. 20, an individual wallet acquired 800 call option contracts targeting the $90,000 strike price, with an expiration date of Nov. 6 on Derive. Each single contract corresponds to one whole bitcoin.
The exchange informed CoinDesk that this represents roughly $68 million in nominal value using current market rates, making it the largest open bitcoin position on the platform.
A call option grants the owner the privilege, but not the mandate, to acquire the underlying asset at a set price on or before an expiration date. This mechanism locks in a future purchase price today. Even if market values rise substantially by the target date, the holder retains the right to buy at the prearranged rate.
The execution of this position involved more than a straightforward purchase. The same wallet offset the cost by selling 400 call contracts at a $100,000 strike expiring in March 2027, along with another 400 call contracts at a $90,000 strike expiring on Oct. 30, successfully pocketing a net gain of about $940,000 after funding the initial buy.
Another notable shift involves improving market odds. Derive’s calculated probability of bitcoin crossing the $100,000 threshold by Christmas climbed to 12% from 9.7% over the span of a week. Meanwhile, the implied likelihood of bitcoin dropping beneath $70,000 before Christmas decreased from 15.6% to 11%.
Based on metrics from DefiLlama, Derive currently operates as the premier decentralized exchange by notional volume and open interest.
Even so, it remains considerably smaller than the centralized powerhouse Deribit, an established platform operating for ten years that records daily volumes and open interests scaling into the billions. On that platform, front-end 25-delta skews for both bitcoin and ether remain negative. In short, put options carry higher costs than calls, pointing toward a preference for downside hedging. Traders should remain vigilant!
Today’s signal
The illustrated daily candlestick chart highlights ether’s price fluctuations since June. It features an overlaid Ichimoku cloud, a technical tool deployed to determine support levels, resistance barriers, and trend shifts.
Ether sits right on the edge of breaking underneath the cloud structure and forfeiting the support provided by the bullish trendline established from the lows in late June.
If validated, this dual breakdown would indicate severe buyers’ exhaustion, concluding ether’s upward trend and opening the door to steeper declines.
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Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/10/26/a-usd68-million-bitcoin-bet-is-targeting-a-post-midterm-election-breakout-to-usd90-000.
