During Asian morning trade on Thursday, Bitcoin hovered slightly over $77,600, reflecting a 24-hour gain of approximately 1.5% after bottoming out near $76,400 during late U.S. trading hours.
Among leading digital assets, XRP outperformed the market at $1.36, advancing nearly 3%. BNB gained roughly 2% to trade just below $692, while Solana climbed 2% to defend the $100 mark; Tron moved up approximately 1% to near 33 cents, and Hyperliquid’s HYPE held steady just above $82. Meanwhile, Ether underperformed the wider market, trading just under $2,400.
On a weekly basis, Ether has dropped nearly 4%, Tron has declined around 3%, XRP has slipped roughly 3%, and Bitcoin is down about 1%, making Zcash at $817 alongside HYPE the sole large-cap tokens maintaining green weekly performance.
Market analysts at Bitfinex noted via an email update that the aggregate cost basis across active network participants stood at $76,350, with Bitcoin approaching within $50 of that threshold before dip buyers stepped in. Throughout the week, this price band has absorbed selling pressure from investors who acquired coins in February and March, allowing them to break even instead of locking in losses.
The firm also cautioned that a retreat could unfold in the upcoming weeks due to seasonal patterns. “September has historically been a bearish month for BTC, with an average return of -2.95 percent since 2013,” the analysts stated. “With August’s momentum carrying into the month, we expect that any intra-month correction leaves the odds in favour of continuation higher on the higher timeframes”
Bitcoin maintained its footing even as the bond market faced severe opposing pressure.
Fresh U.S. military strikes in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz triggered a sharp jump in crude oil prices and reignited inflation concerns, propelling the 10-year Treasury yield slightly above 4.8% for its highest close since 2023 and boosting the U.S. Dollar Index to just below 100. Stock markets proved resilient, as the S&P 500 finished at 7,646, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added about 277 points, and gold settled around $4,418.
Concurrently, the CME FedWatch tool indicates the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike on September 16 sits just north of 62%, moderating from slightly above 67% the prior day and up from roughly 37% a week earlier, prior to Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s address at Jackson Hole. Futures markets currently assign zero probability to an interest rate reduction.
Friday’s nonfarm payrolls figures will likely solidify expectations for the September FOMC gathering, and derivative books reflect this positioning. Hedging against downside risk is concentrated between $68,000 and $75,000, spanning the timeframe between the payrolls report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release scheduled for September 11, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, while bullish exposure is visible via call options above prevailing price levels, and perpetual contract leverage remains substantially below August highs.
A weaker-than-anticipated payrolls figure following Wednesday’s soft ADP data would further suppress rate-hike odds, potentially putting the $80,000 mark back into reach for Bitcoin.
Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/03/bitcoin-back-above-usd77-500-xrp-leads-majors-as-fed-hike-odds-near-66.
