Bitcoin maintains an optimistic trajectory, although it must break through the $81,700 resistance barrier to officially validate a fresh bull cycle, based on insights from CryptoQuant.
In a report released on Friday, the on-chain data provider noted that the 24% surge in bitcoin over a fortnight had lost momentum. Valuations have oscillated between $76,000 and $82,000, currently stabilizing near $77,000.
“The underlying trend remains positive, yet a significant barrier of resistance blocks the path,” stated Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, inside the publication.
Resistance levels range from $77,100 to $88,700
Moreno identifies a resistance band between $77,100 and $80,200, an area where long-term investors distributed up to 539,000 BTC across a 30-day window within the year. Moreno defines this cluster as the “closest and most substantial on-chain supply obstacle situated above current market valuations.”
Directly following that range, the primary technical hurdle appears at bitcoin’s 365-day moving average, positioned near $81,700 currently, explained Moreno.
Historically, bitcoin bull runs have “officially” commenced once valuations settle above this specific moving average, Moreno observed. He explained that a decisive breakthrough past this mark might confirm a new bull market, failing which bitcoin could continue oscillating within its established channel.
The subsequent threshold sits at $83,600, determined by CryptoQuant’s “3x Metcalfe band.” This analytical framework calculates bitcoin’s worth utilizing network engagement, which incorporates active wallet addresses.
Moreno mentioned that these specific bands have highlighted critical milestones across past market periods. The 3x band rested at $138,000 when bitcoin achieved its $126,000 record peak during October 2025. Meanwhile, the 2x band aligned closely with bitcoin’s valuation when it first crossed the $100,000 mark in December 2024.
Furthermore, Moreno spots potential selling pressure close to $88,700. This boundary represents the upper threshold of CryptoQuant’s active trader realized price metric, which monitors the mean cost basis for short-term market participants.
“The upper boundary indicates where profit-taking activity from traders has traditionally manifested,” Moreno remarked.
Bitcoin support levels
Should bitcoin drift downward, Moreno points to support near $70,000, aligning with its 200-day moving average. Additional support is spotted between $62,000 and $65,000, representing a region where long-term investors accumulated roughly 476,000 BTC throughout the year.
“The macro outlook continues to favor bulls; Bitcoin simply needs to absorb existing overhead inventory and clear its valuation ceilings prior to initiating another upward advance,” Moreno summarized.
Originally published at https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-09-12-cryptoquant-bitcoin-resistance-support-levels-414519.
