The probability of the Clarity Act advancing past a crucial Senate threshold dropped on Tuesday following the Republican dismissal of a Democratic counteroffer, leaving both parties significantly divided just hours prior to a critical procedural vote.
Senator Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), acting as a primary Republican negotiator for the legislation, stated that the Democratic proposal showed minimal divergence from the positions lawmakers maintained prior to the August recess.
“Senate Democrats’ counter offer looks identical to their opening position at the start of recess,” Lummis noted in a formal statement provided to CoinDesk. “Republicans have moved substantially on every front, including agreeing to nearly all of the Tillis-Gallego ethics framework, while Democrats have not budged an inch.”
“If Democrats are serious about reaching a deal, they need to actually start negotiating instead of resubmitting the same demands and calling it progress,” she added.
Participants on Polymarket currently estimate the likelihood of the Clarity Act enacting into law throughout 2026 at only 14% on Tuesday morning, representing a decrease from roughly 30% observed about 24 hours beforehand.
This contraction is likewise visible on Kalshi, where participants continually delay anticipated legislative breakthroughs into subsequent periods. The prediction contract estimating a crypto market structure bill to be enacted prior to October 1, 2027, declined to 36% on Tuesday, down from approximately 53% on Monday morning.
By way of contrast, Monday’s market participants had estimated the odds of enactment prior to July 1, 2027, at 53%. By Tuesday, an extended timeframe appeared increasingly realistic, as Kalshi traders assigned the legislation, or any equivalent crypto market structure policy, a 51% probability of taking effect exclusively by January 1, 2028.
This sudden shift takes place after prediction markets spiked on Monday driven by expectations that Republican compromises might finally resolve the extended legislative stalemate. That enthusiasm rapidly diminished as banking associations pressured legislators to reinforce limitations concerning stablecoin interest and rewards, whereas a bipartisan coalition of state attorneys general cautioned that the bill might diminish state authorities’ capability to regulate digital asset fraud.
GOP lawmakers published what they designated as their final draft over the weekend incorporating over 100 alterations requested by Democrats, which included compromises concerning ethics rules. The Senate is planned to vote on Tuesday afternoon regarding invoking cloture on the motion to proceed, a measure demanding 60 votes.
Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/09/15/clarity-act-s-odds-of-passing-plunge-as-republicans-reject-democrats-counter-proposal.
