Bitcoin slid 3% from Wednesday to Friday to nearly $82,900 before showing renewed momentum.
Bitcoin’s recent price surge has triggered a possible bullish signal for even larger gains.
That signal is the price topping its 365-day rolling simple moving average.
On September 22, bitcoin rose above its 365-day average near $80,900 for the first time in 310 days, Ryan Horst and Joni Zhuleku, founders of Altcoin Pro, noted in an email discussion.
Altcoin Pro discovered that bitcoin traded higher 12 months later across all five prior occurrences where it re-entered territory above its 365-day average following a duration of at least 90 days underneath it. Those advances spanned from approximately 59% to exceeding 1,400%, though the peak climb took place back in 2012 when bitcoin functioned as a niche property.
Horst mentioned that this historical pattern lacks absolute infallibility. When the enterprise factored in shorter spans spent underneath that threshold, researchers uncovered a pair of unsuccessful breakouts occurring in July 2018 alongside March 2022, wherein bitcoin suffered pullbacks of roughly 27% and 59% respectively within a 90-day window.
“This September’s move is encouraging, especially after 310 days below the line, but we want to see it hold,” Horst said. “It is a signal, not a guarantee.”
The pair maintains an optimistic outlook regarding bitcoin’s extended trajectory. Nevertheless, their perspective relies more heavily on valuations sustaining themselves past the 200-day average rather than the 365-day metric.
“The 365-day is still catching up to something the 200-day already told us in mid-August,” they stated. The 200-day benchmark climbed toward roughly $70,800 based on AltcoinPro’s calculations, leaving bitcoin positioned approximately 19% higher than that line ahead of the recent minor pullback over the past 36 hours. Conversely, the 365-day benchmark continued dropping, remaining significantly closer to the active market quotation.
Moving averages stem from historical valuations, illustrating how an asset performed across a specific duration instead of forecasting its subsequent direction. A 365-day metric reacts with less velocity to contemporary adjustments compared to a 200-day metric.
“The 365-day average is telling you where bitcoin was six months ago,” Ryan and Joni Zhuleku expressed. “The 200-day reaction is roughly three months earlier. In a market that moves the way this one does, three months is the whole trade.”
Bitcoin’s 50-day average ascended past its 200-day average on September 8, establishing the pattern known as a golden cross. This particular indicator holds a mixed history regarding standalone predictive reliability, with various historical crosses failing to sustain prolonged upward momentum, as CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole outlined.
AltcoinPro contended that this particular golden cross appears more constructive due to its arrival following an extended phase beneath the 200-day benchmark, as opposed to emerging close to a market summit. Bitcoin spent 293 days underneath that standard prior to ascending above it again, according to the founders, who noted this duration remained briefer than the roughly 436 days recorded beneath that same threshold during the 2022-23 bear cycle.
The upcoming test involves determining whether this minor corrective selloff drives bitcoin downward toward that specific threshold once more, according to Horst and Zhuleku.
Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/24/bitcoin-just-topped-a-key-long-term-moving-average-here-s-what-it-might-mean.
