A market trend indicator is displaying symptoms of deceleration after the recent surge in bitcoin prices brought it merely 10 points shy of a maximum score.
Bitcoin climbed 0.4% to reach slightly above $3,300 during Wednesday morning hours in Asia, pulling back from an eight-month peak close to $87,400.
CryptoQuant, a blockchain analytics provider, assigns its Bull Score at 90 out of a possible 100. This metric compiles on-chain and market statistics into one aggregate reading, rising sharply after bitcoin crossed its 365-day moving average the previous week—an event the company views as validation of a bullish market cycle.
The purchasing activity driving that initial breakout is already losing steam. CryptoQuant calculates that spot demand has contracted by roughly 170,000 BTC across the preceding 30 days.
SOL and ZEC paced the major assets, advancing nearly 2% apiece to roughly $119 and slightly over $1,400. XRP increased approximately 1% to just under $1.50, while ether, BNB, and TRX each gained less than 1%, according to CoinDesk figures.
CryptoQuant determines demand by contrasting newly minted bitcoin against fluctuations in the reserve of coins untouched for a year or longer. Referred to as apparent demand, this metric has seen continuous shrinkage throughout the month. The broader market is currently absorbing fewer coins than the quantity newly entering circulation.
Demand within the futures sector is decelerating at a faster pace. Expansion in speculative derivatives demand dropped from around 164,000 BTC on September 14 down to 16,000 BTC on September 29, marking a 90% decline over a 15-day span.
Current investors are sitting on an average unrealized gain of 33%, representing the highest level observed since December 2024. They locked in profits on 25,700 BTC on September 22, establishing the largest single-day volume of profit realization for the year.
“Without fresh demand, rallies struggle to extend,” noted Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, within the published report. “With spot demand still in contraction and futures growth stalling, near-term upside becomes harder to sustain.”
Altcoin participants are likewise transferring tokens onto trading platforms. CryptoQuant tallied 76,000 altcoin transfers to exchanges over a seven-day period, representing the highest figure since October 2025, originating from 51,000 distinct addresses. Assets sitting on an exchange can be liquidated within seconds, meaning that pool of supply remains readily available to suppress any potential price rebound.
The modest appreciation in bitcoin accompanied a wider recovery across Asian markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.9%, with 10 out of its 11 economic sectors trading higher, while sovereign bonds stabilized following a severe sell-off. SoftBank Group, an investor in OpenAI, surged over 6% after Bloomberg reported that the artificial intelligence enterprise is targeting a minimum of $30 billion in fresh capital at a $1.4 trillion valuation. Equity-index futures pointed toward positive openings in Europe and Wall Street.
Traders continue to monitor an impending U.S. inflation report scheduled for later in the day to obtain signals regarding future central bank interest rate trajectories. A high inflation figure typically increases the probability of a rate hike, which strengthens the U.S. dollar and pressures risk-on assets such as bitcoin, whereas a low figure improves the likelihood of a rate cut and generally benefits the crypto sector.
Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/30/bitcoin-rally-shows-signs-of-cooling-even-as-a-bull-score-gauge-nears-its-perfect-score.
