Coverage ended on October 5, 2026, at 5:00 p.m. EDT.
Friday’s weak employment figures alone will likely not deter the Federal Reserve from continuing its interest rate hike cycle.
Bitcoin approaches the one-year mark since its record peak
On October 6, 2025, the valuation of bitcoin BTC$85,793.45 surged past $126,000 before experiencing an immediate retracement.
That downward move was far from temporary; within days, bitcoin suffered a flash crash back to approximately $100,000, and by the time Thanksgiving arrived, the price had slid to just over $80,000.
Following an initial relief bounce into the new year, bitcoin renewed its descent, hitting a low of roughly $60,000 amid fearful trading conditions on February 6, 2026—marking precisely four months since its all-time high.
The asset briefly breached that low during early July prior to recovering to its current level of $85,700, representing roughly a 32% decline from the peak achieved a year ago.
Equities brush off bond selloff with Nasdaq advancing over 1%
Digital assets have surrendered their initial gains, yet the stock market continues to forge ahead despite climbing interest rates.
With less than an hour remaining before Monday’s market close, the Nasdaq sits at a session high, posting a 1.15% gain. The S&P 500 has advanced 0.8%, and even the interest-rate-sensitive financial sector (XLF) is up by 0.85%.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has added six basis points to reach roughly a 22-year peak of 5.34%. On the short end, market participants are re-evaluating Friday’s assumption that an October rate increase was completely off the table in the wake of the soft U.S. jobs report.
Odds for an October rate hike have climbed back to 24% after previously dropping to about 15% on Friday.
France is not Greece, emphasizes French central bank chief while calling for fiscal reform
Emmanuel Moulin, governor of the Banque de France, stated in an FT interview, ‘France is not Greece during the Eurozone crisis.’ He added, ‘If it can pass a budget this year to reduce spending and narrow the deficit as the government has proposed, then markets will be reassured by this concrete step of fiscal consolidation.’
He further cautioned, ‘If we don’t act, there is indeed a risk of being gradually strangled by rising interest rates.’
Moulin’s remarks came as French bond spreads over German yields widened to nearly 15-year highs over recent sessions, sparking speculation that a new European Union debt crisis might be emerging.
According to Moulin, discussing whether the European Central Bank needs to step in—similar to its interventions during the 2011 and 2012 debt turmoil—is premature.
Bitcoin encounters headwinds as yields climb once more
After nearly touching $87,000 on Sunday, bitcoin BTC$85,793.45 pulled back to $85,500 during late-morning trading in the United States, remaining mostly unchanged across the 24-hour window.
This downward pressure may be linked to renewed friction within the fixed-income market.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 5 basis points to reach 5.33%, which is also 16 basis points above the low registered on Friday following the disappointing jobs report.
Meanwhile, the 2-year yield climbed back to 4.84% after dropping as low as 4.71% late last week.
Although September’s nonfarm payroll addition of 29,000 jobs fell short of the forecasted 90,000, the three-month average job gain stands at 51,000.
While that figure also appears subdued, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh recently expressed indifference toward sluggish employment expansion, highlighting factors such as a contracting labor pool.
Ultimately, Friday’s weak economic data print by itself will not deter the central bank from pursuing further rate hikes. Inflation remains the primary concern for policymakers, meaning that a disappointing or even in-line September Consumer Price Index report next week could trigger additional monetary tightening.
SpaceX surges 60% relative to August lows
SpaceX SPCX$171.34·Market Closed, headed by Elon Musk, posted a 5.5% increase on Monday, pushing its total recovery to 60% since hitting an August low of $105. The equity had previously touched $225 shortly after completing its mid-June initial public offering.
SpaceX’s weighting within the Nasdaq 100 index was officially set at 2.82% during the September index rebalancing. Concurrently, the broader Nasdaq 100 index advanced 0.6%, trading just beneath its Friday record high.
Primary global risk metric softens on Monday
Concerns regarding a potential revival of the 2011-2012 European debt crisis dominated macro discussions throughout the previous week.
Analysts note that the current situation appears significantly more dangerous. Whereas the initial episode a decade and a half ago centered on collapsing government bond markets on the periphery of the Eurozone—specifically Greece—this year’s distress affects the core, namely France.
The key indicator to monitor is the yield spread between French 10-year OATs and German 10-year Bunds, which blew out last week to extremes not witnessed since the height of the original European sovereign debt crisis.
Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid commented, ‘At one point on Friday, the spread hit +160 basis points so we were on the edge of a mini panic.’ He further noted, ‘The big question is whether this is the start of a new euro sovereign crisis or whether markets have already overshot.’
Reid and his colleagues anticipate that the European Central Bank may be forced to scale back its tightening plans, potentially delivering just one more 25-basis-point increase rather than the three additional hikes anticipated by markets only days ago.
The Bund-OAT interest rate differential contracted by approximately five basis points on Monday to settle at 140 basis points, signaling a slight reduction in market stress.
The broader implications for digital assets are clear: central banks typically tighten policy until something breaks. European debt complications, particularly at the bloc’s core, are likely to force a more accommodating monetary stance than previously expected from both the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. All else being equal, looser monetary policy benefits risk-on sectors, including cryptocurrency.
Service sector momentum cools down slightly in the prior month
The ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index retreated to 54.9 in September, down from 55.4 in August and below the consensus analyst expectation of 55.
Because the PMI functions as a diffusion index, any reading above 50 denotes economic growth, while figures below 50 reflect contraction.
Conversely, the Prices Paid component climbed from 72.6 to 74, signaling that persistent inflationary pressures remain active.
The New Orders sub-index edged downward from 60.9 to 59.8.
U.S. government debt yields held marginally higher for the session, with the 10-year yield adding two basis points to 5.30%.
Bitmine expands its digital asset reserves with another $41 million ether purchase
Bitmine Immersion Technologies BMNR$26.82·Market Closed maintained its regular weekly accumulation pattern by acquiring 15,112 ether ETH$2,711.73 over the course of the past week.
Based on Monday’s valuation of $2,700 per ETH, the transaction is valued at roughly $41 million, according to a corporate update.
This latest acquisition elevates Bitmine’s total reserves to 6,016,414 ETH, representing roughly 4.9% of the total 122.1 million token supply. At prevailing market rates, these holdings are valued at approximately $16.2 billion, bringing the corporation within striking distance of its stated 5% accumulation goal.
Chairman Thomas Lee also reported that the enterprise repurchased 21 million shares of its own stock during the first three quarters of the year.
Strive aggressively expands holdings by adding 2,000 bitcoin last week
Strive ASST$30.22·Market Closed, the corporate treasury entity managed by Matt Cole, purchased an additional 2,000 bitcoin last week for a total outlay of $169 million, lifting its cumulative holdings to 29,462 coins valued at close to $2.5 billion.
Capital for the acquisition was secured through common stock warrant exercises as well as ongoing distributions of the firm’s high-yield preferred stock, SATA, which continues trading near its $100 par value.
Strategy acquires 334 additional bitcoin
Strategy MSTR$163.80·Market Closed made a modest addition to its cryptocurrency reserves last week, buying 334 coins for $28.7 million. This transaction brought its aggregate inventory to 848,000 BTC acquired at a mean purchase price of $75,441 per coin.
The company generated $15.7 million during the week through common stock offerings while simultaneously buying back roughly $175 million of its high-yielding preferred equity, STRC, which continues to change hands just below its $100 par threshold.
With the conclusion of the third quarter last week, Strategy disclosed a $20.91 billion unrealized gain on its bitcoin stash alongside $1.88 billion in deferred tax obligations.
Aave puts forward governance proposal to place protocol IP under a DAO-directed foundation
Decentralized liquidity platform Aave is pursuing the establishment of a memberless entity in the Cayman Islands named the Aave Foundation, designed to hold the project’s trademarks and intellectual property on behalf of the DAO via the Aave Will Win initiative.
The proposal marks the initial phase toward setting up the legal structure and designating its initial independent director and supervisor. Subsequent phases will address the migration of trademarks, web domains, and codebase intellectual property, as well as mapping out operational frameworks, with each step subject to individual governance votes.
Data from CoinDesk indicates that the AAVE token has softened by 1% over the trailing 24-hour period.
Cardano derivatives trading volume gains momentum
Open interest—representing the aggregate volume of active derivative contracts—in ADA futures has climbed to 2.46 billion tokens, according to metrics provided by Coinglass, reaching its highest mark since August 22.
Concurrently, the asset’s spot valuation has rallied by 10% to surpass 27 cents over the past 24 hours.
A concurrent expansion in open interest alongside price appreciation is widely interpreted as confirmation of a strengthening bullish trend, signaling that market speculators are actively establishing long exposure.
Bitcoin must break past $87,200 following softer macroeconomic data, notes QCP
Bitcoin advanced 1% to move just past $86,000 early Monday after a disappointing U.S. employment report prompted traders to abandon wagers on an impending Federal Reserve rate increase in October.
Among major alternative assets, DOGE outperformed with an advance exceeding 3%, while HYPE climbed nearly 3% to approximately $93. Ether and XRP registered modest gains of up to 1%, whereas SOL, BNB, and ZEC each declined by under 1%, according to CoinDesk data figures.
According to research from QCP Capital, U.S. employers generated a mere 29,000 positions in September, falling far short of the anticipated 84,000 additions. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%, and annualized wage growth decelerated to 3%, marking its softest reading since May 2021.
While those metrics reinforce expectations for a policy pause by the central bank in October, long-term borrowing expenses have remained largely unchanged. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently stationed at 5.25%, a trend QCP attributes to heavy debt issuance and the elevated risk premium investors now require to hold long-term government securities.
Liquidations over the weekend remained minimal at $62.7 million, with short positions accounting for 68% of that total volume. The firm noted that ‘Acceptance above $87,200 remains necessary to confirm the next leg.’
The official minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent policy meeting are scheduled for release on Wednesday.
Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/10/05/live-updates-bitcoin-above-usd86-000-as-traders-price-out-an-october-fed-hike.
