Based on checkonchain statistics, only a single yearly cohort of bitcoin buyers remains at a loss: those who acquired their coins in 2025 with an average purchase price close to $88,000, a threshold that could now present a major barrier due to selling pressure from these relatively recent participants.
During September, bitcoin hit a peak for the month at $87,500 before entering a period of consolidation and subsequently dropping below the $84,000 mark by Wednesday.
Throughout this market cycle, these annual volume-weighted cost bases have consistently functioned as both support and resistance zones. When the price of bitcoin nears a specific cohort’s average acquisition cost, certain investors choose to cash out evenly while others increase their holdings.
Back in May, bitcoin climbed to around $82,100 to align with the 2024 buyer group’s mean cost basis, but it met selling pressure and pulled back down to $60,000 before eventually breaking past that boundary in August.
Meanwhile, the cost basis for the 2023 group hovers near $65,000, serving as a dependable support floor. When bitcoin dipped toward $60,000 in February, the cost basis for that specific demographic sat close by, holding firm as a solid foundation throughout the 2026 bear market despite a brief breach downward.
For the 2026 buyer demographic, the average cost basis sits near $73,500, and these participants have mostly stayed in profit since late August when bitcoin surged past that mark.
Another metric worth monitoring is the aggregate cost basis for U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which tracks the average pricing of inflows into these vehicles and currently sits around $82,300. Because ETF participants only recently reclaimed profitability for the year, this threshold represents a vital support zone should bitcoin experience further declines.
Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/07/bitcoin-s-recovery-stalls-just-short-of-rescuing-its-last-underwater-cohort.
