Who ultimately claims Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1.1 million bitcoin, along with millions of other coins exposed if quantum computers scale up enough to compromise their security, has long sparked intense discussion.
Christopher Smith, chief executive of Quantus—a quantum-resistant layer-1 blockchain—argues that whichever entity fields that capability first might seize those multi-billion-dollar holdings, potentially backed by a nation-state.
“The most probable outcome is that whoever secures the initial CRQC (Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer) will claim them, likely with the backing of a national government,” Smith shared with CoinDesk. “With any luck, it’s an administration friendly to bitcoin.”
This caution from the security researcher and protocol engineer arrives as nine web3 enterprises launched the Quantum Alliance to formulate unified security benchmarks for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and additional distributed networks.
The central anxiety is that future quantum systems could work backward from publicly visible wallet keys to deduce private keys, granting malicious actors unauthorized access to funds. The Alliance calculates that 6.4 million bitcoin—representing 30.2% of the circulating supply—currently feature exposed public keys. Those tokens remain secure today because present-day quantum hardware lacks the required scale.
A primary inquiry for many observers centers on when quantum machines will genuinely menace bitcoin. Bryn Bennett, chief revenue officer at The Vault, noted: “Exact timelines remain unknown, yet projections continue shrinking, transforming this into a risk we can actively prepare for. For custodians, the core dilemma isn’t whether the target year is 2028 or 2035, but whether migration can happen fast enough if an early breakthrough occurs.”
Conversely, Richard Carback, chief technology officer at Postquant Labs, offered a dissenting view, stating he considers 2028 a plausible timeframe for a device capable of cracking contemporary encryption.
Recent studies have Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/10/16/experts-agree-quantum-computers-could-put-satoshi-s-bitcoin-at-risk-but-not-on-what-s-next.
