Tuesday, November 3rd marks election day across the United States. Although this vote will not impact the cryptocurrency sector quite as directly as the 2024 presidential race did, the individuals sworn into Congress in January will ultimately shape the industry’s legislative relationship with Washington, D.C. for the following two years.
To discuss the upcoming election, tune in with CoinDesk alongside Justin Slaughter, Ron Hammond, and Jessica Martinez on a Twitter space tomorrow at 12:00 p.m. Eastern time. We will field your inquiries and examine possible election outcomes.
On Tuesday, CoinDesk will track election outcomes live as they are reported, featuring expert commentary on what these results signify for the sector (if you wish to contribute your perspective, reach out to me via email at nik@coindesk.com).
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Midterms ’26
The narrative
The 2026 midterms will not mold the cryptocurrency market to the same degree as the 2024 elections. There is no incoming presidential administration, nor will the leadership of major regulatory bodies shift. Nevertheless, this does not imply that the crypto space will remain entirely unaffected by the electoral outcomes.
Why it matters
Key considerations for the market include:
- What will the composition of Congress look like throughout 2027 and 2028? Will Democrats manage to capture the House of Representatives, the Senate, or both?
- Will Congress successfully enact any statutory rules, and if so, which measures? Might cryptocurrency firms be summoned before lawmakers to give testimony concerning their interactions with President Donald Trump’s administration?
- Will regulatory authorities—such as the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Treasury Department and its constituent divisions, the Federal Reserve, and others—manage to finalize mandates during the initial half of the year?
- How will the digital asset sector adapt to a newly constituted Congress?
Breaking it down
A variety of potential scenarios exist. As of Friday afternoon, the prevailing consensus suggests that the House of Representatives is likely to change hands. The Senate presents a completely different scenario; everyone I consulted indicated that the outcome remains a total toss-up.
For the record, the nonpartisan tracking publication Cook Political Report forecasts that Democrats will likely secure the House. The Senate remains far more uncertain.
Prediction market participants on Kalshi anticipate that Democrats will secure majorities in both the House and the Senate. Traders on Polymarket forecast comparable outcomes for both chambers of the House and Senate. Additionally, recent polls suggest a favorable evening for Democrats, who require a minimum of four additional seats to secure the Senate. For a compilation of critical contests monitored by CoinDesk, click here.
Conversations with individuals operating within or adjacent to Washington, D.C. reveal a prevailing sentiment that the Senate race could genuinely swing in either direction. The electoral map is substantially more competitive than it appeared a year ago, and regional dynamics mean the Ohio Senate race, for instance, will unfold due to different drivers than the contest in Texas. Furthermore, certain states may continue tabulating votes well into the following week, meaning control of the Senate might remain undecided on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
The digital asset industry has maintained an active presence, allocating over $170 million toward the 2026 elections, largely channeled through the Fairshake political action committee and its associated entities. A massive portion of that total—exceeding $60 million sourced from Fairshake alongside another PAC—was dedicated explicitly toward halting former Senator Sherrod Brown’s campaign to reclaim a Senate seat.
At the same time, these political action committees have directed contributions toward various other campaigns as corporate entities ready themselves for whatever circumstances 2027 may bring.
Wintermute’s head of policy and advocacy, Ron Hammond, noted that expectations point toward heavy congressional oversight rather than an influx of comprehensive legislation. Web3 organizations are evaluating their potential political exposure, especially since Democratic campaigns have focused on pledges to investigate alleged corruption involving the president and his administration.
Several House committees are anticipated to scrutinize donations made by crypto firms—and other entities—directed toward initiatives like the White House East Wing ballroom renovation, Trump’s memecoin, World Liberty Financial, and other blockchain-associated projects, he stated.
The trajectory of future policymaking remains less certain.
Chainlink policy director Taylor Barr explained that the primary objective for the sector continues to be securing regulations drafted firmly rather than tentatively.
Regardless of how the elections pan out, however, the incoming legislative class is expected to incorporate a higher concentration of innovation-friendly officials, he noted.
That shift could assist with objectives such as tax reform designed to eliminate de minimis taxes on micro-transactions, which might witness activity during the lame-duck session—referring to the window when legislators return to Washington between this week’s vote and the conclusion of the year—though such measures are more realistically expected to be addressed in 2027.
Anchorage Digital policy lead Kevin Wysocki likewise observed that tax legislation stands a strong chance of being finalized within the upcoming congressional session.
He also pointed out that lawmakers and committees concentrated on national security may begin directing closer scrutiny toward the digital asset space.
“I think there’s a lot of interest and growing interest in the relevant committees, whether that’s [Intelligence], Homeland [Security], Foreign Affairs—all of them are more and more interested in these issues,” he stated. (Editor’s note: Wysocki spoke with CoinDesk roughly thirty minutes before digital asset platform Binance suffered losses exceeding $6 billion via a security breach tied to North Korea.)
Congress is also likely to examine a market structure bill, although Wysocki cautioned that it will likely diverge from the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which failed to clear the Senate floor last month.
“I think it’ll be tougher on DeFi [decentralized finance], tougher on vertical integration which will be tougher for some of the players in the space,” he remarked, referencing corporate structures and whether enterprises will retain the ability to combine multiple operational arms, such as operating both a brokerage and an exchange within a single corporate umbrella.
Whether this proposed measure—or a revised 2027 iteration—will muster sufficient backing to cross the finish line remains an open question, though Wysocki added that bipartisan support for digital assets does exist.
On the legislative side, Democrats might alternatively prioritize affordability concerns over sector-specific crypto agendas, according to Fireblocks policy chief Jessica Martinez.
“This industry and ecosystem is broadening out to a whole host of players that just haven’t traditionally been in our space, and it would seem it would seem odd, in my view, like looking at it historically, that they would go after an industry as a whole, based off of kind of the last few years that we’ve seen,” she explained.
From a regulatory standpoint, it is equally apparent that regulatory bodies face a constrained timeframe to complete rulemaking initiatives. Any regulation that successfully reaches finalization will likely face judicial challenges, introducing the hazard that Administrative Procedures Act litigation could postpone enforcement. Furthermore, if the upcoming U.S. president and legislative majority prove less accommodating to the sector than the current administration, Congress could repeal any final rules enacted too close to the subsequent election via the Congressional Review Act. Consequently, the industry will closely monitor regulatory bodies to see if they can finalize and deploy rules promptly.
What has remained evident for months is that digital assets rank low among voter concerns. As CoinDesk documented in May, a poll surveying 1,000 registered U.S. voters revealed that merely 1% of participants considered crypto a primary concern. The cost of living, employment availability, broader economic conditions, Social Security, and Medicare took precedence by wide margins. Economic pressures have persisted since that polling was conducted.
An unfortunate complication for the digital asset industry is that over recent weeks, select Democrats have begun incorporating references to crypto into their campaign speeches—primarily within the context of vowing to combat perceived corruption linked to the administration. CoinDesk was unable to identify a single instance where digital assets were referenced favorably during campaign events.
This week
Monday
- 17:00 UTC (12:00 p.m. ET) CoinDesk will host a Twitter space to preview the elections and analyze the digital asset sector’s involvement.
Tuesday
- The United States will publish midterm election results.
If you have thoughts or inquiries regarding next week’s topics or wish to share other comments, feel free to drop me an email at nik@coindesk.com or connect with me on Bluesky via @nikhileshde.bsky.social.
You can also participate in community discussions on Telegram.
Catch you all next week!
Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/11/01/the-crypto-reader-s-guide-to-the-2026-midterm-election-state-of-crypto.
