Earlier this week, bitcoin BTC $77,305.17 formed a golden cross, a technical pattern that happens when the 50-day moving average of the price moves higher than the 200-day moving average and is typically interpreted as an indicator of an incoming upward surge.
Yet, past performance reveals that this scenario rarely plays out. Rather, bitcoin usually secures a major share of its gains prior to the crossover, subsequently experiencing a retracement right after the indicator materializes.
This most recent event aligns directly with that historical tendency. Bitcoin advanced from $62,000 to $82,000 leading up to the golden cross, which materialized at the start of the week, and has since dropped from about $80,000 down to $77,000.
This is not the initial occasion where this metric has fallen short of anticipations.
During 2021, bitcoin rose from $35,000 during July to approximately $52,000 during September. A golden cross then developed, and values soon retreated near $40,000.
At the start of 2023, bitcoin surged from $16,000 to $23,000 to produce a golden cross during February. The leading digital asset subsequently pulled back toward $20,000 by March.
A identical sequence occurred in October 2024. Bitcoin moved upward from $54,000 to $70,000 before the crossover, prior to declining toward $67,000 approaching November.
Most recently, bitcoin found a low near $76,000 in April 2025 and surged to roughly $110,000 in May. Following the establishment of the golden cross, BTC drifted lower to approximately $100,000 later in June.
Therefore, while the golden cross is viewed as a positive long-term signal, it additionally functions as a lagging indicator. By the moment it emerges, a major part of the price increase may have already taken place.
Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/11/bitcoin-pulls-back-as-another-golden-cross-fails-to-deliver.
