Bitcoin recently slipped past a vital threshold, undoing a September indicator that previously convinced experts a fresh bull market had commenced.
More precisely, the valuation of the primary digital currency slid under its 50-week simple moving average. BTC recently changed hands below $73,400, trading at a discount to its 50-week SMA of $75,153.
This development signifies a failed breakout, a chart formation that technical analysts frequently interpret as a resurgence of seller dominance within the marketplace.
Back in September, quotes decisively broke past the 50-week average, leading multiple market observers, including Galaxy Digital’s head of research Alex Thorn, to highlight it as proof of the inauguration of a fresh bull run.
Thorn’s evaluation revealed that in four out of five past completed bear cycles, the initial weekly close above the 50-week SMA sparked major bull runs. The singular exception was the 2001-22 period, during which two brief recoveries were followed by a deeper market drop.
Currently, that optimistic perspective remains invalidated, transpiring alongside substantial redemptions from spot ETFs that recently underscored sluggish institutional participation.
“We remain prudent while BTC stays below its 50-week average, with $68k representing the next support level and reclaiming $80k modifying that outlook,” prominent crypto market maker Wintermute stated.
In other developments, the Dollar Index, measuring the American currency’s strength against major alternatives, briefly surpassed 103, marking its peak since March 2025. Persistent dollar vigor renders bitcoin and the wider digital asset sector less appealing.
Certain watchers remain hopeful, arguing the dollar’s surge could be concluding, with markets pricing in the probability of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike for December.
“We believe much of that hawkish sentiment is already factored into prices, pushing the balance of risk toward profit-taking on dollar longs. A compression of US yield differentials would alleviate pressure on crypto and potentially entice buyers back,” Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, explained via email.
Kruger added that upcoming Fed commentary and Friday’s U.S. producer price inflation data serve as the upcoming trials for that viewpoint. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions involving Iran continue to act as a wild card via crude oil pricing, where renewed supply restrictions could sustain inflation worries.
“Should these catalysts offer the dollar minimal impetus to extend its advance, we identify room for Bitcoin to spearhead a recovery from this point,” he pointed out.
Meanwhile, some analysts express concern that MSCI’s omission of Strategy (MSTR) from its benchmarks might constrain the firm’s capacity to secure capital for its bitcoin acquisitions. Nonetheless, a significant portion of the adverse news may already be accounted for, they noted.
“The corporation still commands 850,364 BTC and disclosed zero Bitcoin liquidations. The straightforward near-term trade therefore centers on pressure regarding MSTR liquidity and relative valuation, rather than an automatic BTC liquidation. Projecting index outflows straight onto spot Bitcoin supply constitutes the incorrect hedge,” analysts at Marex communicated via email. Stay vigilant!
What’s trending
- Gemini sells UK and European operations to stablecoin payments firm KAST for under $10 million (CoinDesk): The crypto exchange parted with its U.K. and European divisions to stablecoin payments outfit KAST for less than $10 million.
- Polymarket trims workforce under investor pressure as Kalshi surges ahead (CoinDesk): Polymarket eliminated jobs and terminated contractor arrangements while restructuring its operations amid stakeholder pressure and rising competition from competitor Kalshi. The organization noted the adjustments involved “a lot of new hires, changes in personnel and letting some people go.”
- Nvidia stock falls 6% as investors await Jensen Huang’s fate (CNBC): Nvidia’s board is evaluating CEO Jensen Huang’s standing following reports detailing two extramarital relationships. Multiple Wall Street experts advised CNBC that should Huang be dismissed as CEO, the equity could decline, given his pivotal role in Nvidia’s prosperity.
- Russian diesel exports double after Trump lifts sanctions, but U.S. gets none (FT): President Donald Trump’s choice to permit Russian diesel imports enabled Moscow to double its shipments of the product last month, yet none arrived in the U.S. because purchasers remain unwilling to accept the cargoes.
Today’s signal
The chart illustrates bitcoin’s weekly price fluctuations in candlestick format dating back to 2022. Superimposed on the graphic is the 50-week simple moving average of the valuation.
Bitcoin is currently exchanging hands well beneath that average, highlighting a reversal of the optimistic breakout identified during September.
Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/11/12/bitcoin-weakness-erases-september-s-bullish-signal.
