The last obstacle standing between bitcoin and an expansive recovery has been cleared.
Bitcoin completed the week ending September 20 above its 50-week moving average for the first time across 45 weeks, signaling what Alex Thorn, Head of Galaxy Research, termed a potentially vital confirmation that the bear market may have concluded and a fresh upward trend has begun.
The leading cryptocurrency gained nearly 6% over the course of the week and exchanged hands near $81,000, stretching its total recovery to 29% across the preceding 35 days. This advancement brought Bitcoin’s weekly candlestick—the visual depiction of seven days of price movement—past the 50-week threshold instead of simply touching it.
That distinction holds significant meaning.
While bitcoin operates continuously, the weekly candle officially finalizes at 23:59 UTC on Sunday, initiating a brand-new candle immediately afterward. Market analysts typically assign greater significance to weekly or daily candlesticks sustaining themselves above a primary moving average compared to a momentary spike through it.
Why the 50-week average matters?
The 50-week moving average functions as the mean weekly closing price spanning roughly the prior year. Within market analytics, it is frequently employed as an indicator for Bitcoin’s macro trend.
Throughout robust expansions, bitcoin generally trades higher than this threshold, whereas during prolonged slumps, price rallies regularly falter beneath it.
Galaxy has characterized this average as a form of ceiling during severe bitcoin market contractions. Once the digital asset drops under it, attempts to recapture the level historically fail until market conditions draw nearer to a firm bottom.
Conversely, successful breakouts have signaled the conclusion of bear markets and opened the door for substantial bull runs.
Galaxy evaluated major Bitcoin slumps extending back to 2011 and discovered that bitcoin finished a weekly session back over its 50-week moving average on 13 separate occasions. In 11 of those situations, the market avoided registering a fresh low, implying the worst of the downturn had already concluded.
Here are several notable crossovers that foreshadowed massive bull runs:
- Following the crash in 2011, bitcoin surpassed the average again in January 2012. The contraction was effectively finished, and BTC subsequently launched an approximate 600-fold surge, ascending from around $2 to a then-record peak near $1,200 toward the end of 2013.
- In the wake of the 2014–15 bear market, bitcoin crossed back above the line during October 2015. It refrained from testing the cycle low once more and proceeded with an approximate 100-fold expansion, climbing from about $200 up to a record peak close to $20,000 in December 2017.
- Subsequent to the 2018 crash, bitcoin recaptured the average in May 2019 and did not revisit its December 2018 floor. Starting from the cycle low near $3,200, BTC advanced into an approximate 22-fold rally, achieving a record high surpassing $69,000 in November 2021.
- Following the market trough of 2022, bitcoin moved above the average in March 2023, staying above it for upwards of two years. From a low close to $15,500, BTC went on to register an approximate eightfold rally, scaling to a record peak of roughly $126,000 in October 2025.
These multiples remain approximate due to early BTC price records being inconsistent. Consequently, they serve to demonstrate the magnitude of succeeding rallies without implying that the moving-average crossover by itself triggered them.
History, however, is not a guarantee
Prior performance fails to promise future outcomes, and the 50-week average has experienced its share of false signals.
Two out of the 13 instances proved unsuccessful. Both transpired throughout the turbulent phase stretching across late 2021 and early 2022, when bitcoin temporarily moved past the average before reversing and ultimately dropping toward $16,000. Galaxy designates those unsuccessful recoveries as the crossovers on December 26, 2021, and March 27, 2022.
At the time of this publication, bitcoin exchanges near $81,450, while the 50-week moving average sits at $78,115, according to market data provider CoinDesk.
Assuming history serves as a reliable guide, the most recent recovery implies that the bear-market floor might have been established near $60,000 during recent months. It additionally introduces the possibility that bitcoin could persist in its climb toward unprecedented peaks.
That specific result, nonetheless, will rely on whether bitcoin maintains its position above the moving average during the coming weeks.
Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/21/bitcoin-s-price-has-cleared-a-key-hurdle-that-has-historically-preceded-major-bull-runs.
