According to William Blair analysts, Coinbase shares (COIN) present a compelling buying opportunity for investors following a 31% increase since July 14, in spite of subdued spot trading activity.
They anticipate a wave of regulatory rules emerging after the Senate failed to pass the Clarity Act — such as the Securities and Exchange Commission’s fresh tokenized-equity trading exemption — which should boost market mood and potentially benefit Coinbase as it approaches 2027.
The analysts, headed by Andrew W. Jeffrey, lowered their 2026 EBITDA forecast by 11% down to $810 million while keeping projections for 2027 and 2028 largely steady, suggesting that forecasts could be hitting a bottom. They look forward to a continued recovery in crypto market volume, pointing to bitcoin’s upward movement, the rising adoption of crypto as borrowing collateral, and the growth of tokenized real-world assets, whose total market value has climbed to $39 billion compared to $26 billion at the conclusion of 2025.
Coinbase’s emerging ventures are additionally gaining greater significance.
“Everything Exchange (we hate that term) signals diversification,” the analysts noted in a communication sent to clients. “Call it what you will, Coinbase has diversified its offerings significantly this year, notably adding institutional and retail derivatives and prediction markets.”
Retail derivatives produced around $200 million in annualized income during the initial quarter, whereas prediction markets hit $100 million in the subsequent quarter, jointly representing about 6% of projected 2026 revenue while expanding rapidly and supplying income sources less tied to spot trading.
The analysts additionally contend that worries regarding Coinbase’s pricing structure and market standing are exaggerated, pointing out that its recent reductions in fees for advanced traders targeted regions like the U.K. rather than reflecting vulnerability within its primary U.S. operations.
Circle: USDC expansion viewed as catalyst for upcoming phase
Bitcoin continues to serve as the primary short-term catalyst for Circle’s (CRCL) valuation, William Blair experts noted in a distinct report, with CRCL stock climbing 52% since bitcoin’s trough on July 1. The analysts anticipate that USDC’s market capitalization will track bitcoin’s gains, likely with a slight delay, and state that the next upward surge for CRCL will likely stem from USDC expansion.
The experts assert that a potential competitor stablecoin presents minimal danger to USDC’s standing, maintaining that Circle’s extended value is rooted in establishing a worldwide stablecoin payment and transaction ecosystem instead of depending on interest earned on reserves.
The Senate’s inability to pass the Clarity Act maintains the current regulatory environment for stablecoins mostly unchanged, with the SEC and CFTC expected to address remaining voids through administrative rules. Stablecoin incentives are no longer directly endangered by the stalled bill, the analysts mentioned, whereas the SEC’s tokenized-equity exception and the rising adoption of crypto collateral across Hyperliquid offer extra indicators of industry maturation.
William Blair reaffirmed “outperform” grades for both COIN and CRCL equities.
Originally published at https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-09-22-coinbase-circle-shares-positioned-crypto-recovery-estimates-stabilize-william-blair-416083.
