Bitcoin (BTC) has achieved its inaugural weekly close above $80,000 since the beginning of May as uncertainty darkens the American inflation trajectory.
Key points:
- United States PPI and CPI inflation figures arrive this week ahead of the Federal Reserve’s September 16 interest-rate announcement.
- Amid unprecedented currency interventions, research cautions that Japan might struggle to offload US treasuries to support the yen moving forward.
- The supertrend metric for Bitcoin has issued its initial “buy” notification since late 2025, mirroring the prior bear-market rebound.
CPI and PPI Approach as Markets Anticipate a 0.25% Rate Increase Next
American inflation metrics return to center stage this week after unexpected employment statistics exerted pressure on cryptocurrencies and speculative assets. The August reports for the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) are scheduled for publication on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
The CPI aligned with market forecasts at 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year during the previous month, building upon milder-than-projected June outcomes. Although these figures present an encouraging view on inflation, Kevin Warsh, chair of the US Federal Reserve, indicated that these specific data releases alone failed to justify a reconsideration of monetary policy.
“Each of these broad inflation measures have fallen significantly from their highs of a few years ago, but progress through the past couple of years has been more modest, and while this summer’s PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved,” he stated at the Jackson Hole economic symposium in late August, referencing the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.
Reacting to this address, markets priced in a heightened probability of Federal Reserve interest-rate increases at its upcoming gathering on September 16. Recent metrics from the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicate that consensus leans toward a 0.25% rate increase, with probability standing at 58.4%.
Fed target rate probability comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group
Apprehensions regarding rate hikes were also stimulated by the previous week’s nonfarm payroll statistics, which surpassed expectations by a wide margin and featured upward adjustments to earlier figures. The American economy incorporated 162,000 employment positions in August compared to an initial prediction of 56,000.
A robust employment sector diminishes the necessity for the Fed to ease policy, solidifying the likelihood of rate increases while core inflation remains above its 2% benchmark. Markets have sustained a hawkish perspective on rates, despite Fed governor Christopher Waller expressing backing for a continuous pause in rate hikes and US president Donald Trump renewing pressure on the Fed to implement rate reductions last week.
“The Fed Board, with its great new leader, must get smart – BE PATRIOTS for a change. High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage, and I won’t allow that to happen!” he noted via a publication on Truth Social.
Both the PPI and CPI possess the capacity to reshape the outlook ahead of the assembly, with crypto market price swings frequently accompanying inflation-metric publications.
In commentary, the trading advisory service Mosaic Asset Company observed that the strong employment figures could still present a positive outcome for equities.
“While the knee-jerk reaction is centered around the rate outlook, it’s worth keeping in mind that good news for the economy should be good news for corporate earnings. The jobs report adds to recent data pointing to an economy expanding at solid pace, which should support the bull market looking ahead,” it commented in market commentary over the weekend.
Mosaic warned that seasonality could introduce an additional obstacle, with September historically representing the worst-performing month for equities, whereas the US midterm elections in November should generate more volatile trading conditions as the fourth quarter approaches.
Japanese Yen Interventions Reach Record Highs
Traders are concentrating on the Japanese yen as fresh governmental statistics reveal the magnitude of its record-breaking currency interventions.
On Monday, Japan’s Ministry of Finance announced that its foreign exchange reserves diminished by $79.57 billion from the conclusion of July amid historic currency intervention supporting the yen. The Japanese currency appreciated to 155 against the American dollar as an outcome, maintaining that zone during Monday’s Asian trading session.
“Japan may have used both foreign securities and deposits, but it most likely sold U.S. Treasurys,” Atsushi Takeda, chief economist at Itochu Research Institute, informed Bloomberg.
USD/JPY one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
The maneuver carried potential consequences extending past the yen, with US bond yields already experiencing strain at the long end, encouraging the Treasury to reveal emergency measures scheduled to launch on September 9. Japan offloading US Treasuries to finance upcoming interventions might provoke an adverse reaction from Washington, leaving the Bank of Japan (BOJ) in a difficult position if yen weakness reemerges.
“That would make it difficult for the ministry and the Bank of Japan to act going forward,” Akari Nishimura, an economist at the Japan Research Institute, added.
Polymarket probabilities for BOJ rate decision on Sept. 18. Source: Polymarket
Market participants currently price in an interest-rate increase by the BOJ in September, with benchmark rates already positioned at their highest levels since 1995 at 1.0%. Data sourced from Polymarket presently assigns a 98% probability to a 0.25% enhancement.
Crypto markets persistently exhibit high sensitivity toward fluctuations in the USD/JPY pair and related news due to the potential extended-duration impact upon the yen carry trade and liquidity dynamics.
Bitcoin Spot Market Engagement Continues to Fall Short
Bitcoin still requires greater spot-market participation to break out of its current short-term corridor centered around the $80,000 threshold, analysis suggests.
Onchain metrics platform CryptoQuant observes that upward volatility observed across the past week coincided with sharp increases in open interest (OI) across derivatives platforms. This indicates that derivatives speculators are dictating rapid price fluctuations.
“Aggregate Open Interest rose from $25.2B to $27.53B: +$2.3B (+9.24%) in a single session. On the hourly timeframe, price and OI began expanding almost simultaneously around 09:00 UTC, pointing to a strong influx of new positions,” CryptoQuant documented regarding a prior price shift on September 3, when BTC/USD most recently climbed above $82,000.
CryptoQuant noted that Bitcoin’s realized capitalization—the cumulative value of the BTC supply evaluated by the price at which it last transferred onchain—has failed to match the velocity of open interest expansion.
“The conclusion is clear: the rally had spot/on-chain participation, but the main driver was derivatives. OI expansion, aggressive buying, positive funding, and rising leverage created a structure far more dependent on futures than on realized on-chain capital,” the report continued.
Cointelegraph previously documented that the absence of spot demand constitutes a principal barrier against a durable BTC price trend transformation. As BTC/USD returned investors to net profitability over the preceding month, profit-taking activities accelerated.
CryptoQuant warns that spot demand remains negative, with readings progressively diverging from futures contracts on a 30-day moving basis.
“While futures demand is driving the rise, spot demand continues to show a negative trend. This is not a good signal, as there can be no bullish rally without spot demand. Despite the rebound, the outflow of spot $BTC has increased further,” it stated.
Bitcoin demand growth comparison (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
Last week, Cointelegraph reported on the resurgence of negative apparent demand, demonstrating that the expansion of dormant BTC inventory exceeded newly minted issuance.
BTC Price Secures Initial Weekly Close Above $80,000 in Four Months
Bitcoin briefly brushed against $80,000 on Sunday, establishing its highest weekly settlement since the week beginning May 11, according to TradingView metrics.
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Nevertheless, the $80,000 threshold remains a fragile support level, with bullish traders failing to maintain positions above it consistently as sell-side liquidity accumulates directly overhead. The newest metrics from CoinGlass reveal liquidity concentrated near $80,560, forming a substantial resistance barrier that confines BTC/USD inside a restricted band.
BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass
During the previous month, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode highlighted extensive liquidity bands as crucial for dictating Bitcoin’s extended market trajectory, drawing specific attention to an additional band residing between $83,000 and $86,000.
“While the upward impulse consumed short orders in its path, it stopped short of the dense cluster of short liquidations situated between $83K and $86K,” the organization noted in the latest release of its publication, The Week Onchain.
“Below spot, the move left behind an intact band of long liquidation fuel between $60K and $63K. Price now trades between these two boundaries.”
Bitcoin futures liquidation heatmap. Source: Glassnode
Meanwhile, market observers are evaluating how this consolidation phase might resolve into renewed upward momentum. Jesse Olson, developer associated with the Markets Sniper trading toolkit, anticipates that BTC/USD will replicate a bullish chart pattern from August 2023, identifying $76,000 as a potential local turnaround level.
BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Jesse Olson on X.com
Bitcoin Supertrend Bullish Indicator Mirrors Early 2023 Rebound
Sunday’s weekly settlement featured a traditional BTC price trend indicator turning green for the initial occasion since November 2025.
Related: Here’s what happened in crypto today
On weekly charts, BTC/USD settled above its supertrend line, generating a “buy” indication. The supertrend mechanism utilizes average true range (ATR) metrics alongside a scaling factor to compute straightforward purchase and liquidation signals, evaluated via its engagement with the supertrend trajectory.
Weekly time frames command distinct focus from Bitcoin speculators, given that a settlement above the supertrend benchmark has historically never occurred during a bear market. The preceding instance where the supertrend transitioned from red to green transpired in mid-January 2023, with Bitcoin’s ultimate bear-market trough of $15,600 already two months in the past. Conversely, the indicator shifting from green to red has historically preceded the onset of extended market declines.
BTC/USD one-week chart with supertrend data. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
This signal aligns with a growing collection of signals that has bolstered conviction among certain analysts that Bitcoin established its macro floor at $57,000. In August, BTC/USD settled above its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) for the first time since late 2025—a milestone that has previously served as critical for a long-duration bullish trend reversal.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
Originally published at https://cointelegraph.com/markets/markets-tilt-toward-september-rate-hikes-five-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound.
