The recent price surge in bitcoin has prompted speculators to pursue upward exposure, with the standout derivatives transaction over the past 24 hours signaling anticipations of a rally to $95,000 before October concludes.
Known as a “long call butterfly,” this specific derivatives mechanism yields the greatest returns when the reference asset settles near a median strike price upon expiration. The setup involved acquiring October 30 expiry call contracts at both the $90,000 and $100,000 marks, while concurrently writing double that quantity of $95,000 call contracts.
Execution of this trade took place through the Paradigm liquidity platform across five separate blocks, each comprising 1,000 long $90,000 calls, 2,000 short $95,000 calls, and 1,000 long $100,000 calls, according to analytics provider Laevitas. In total, the aggregated trade demanded an upfront net disbursement of $3.17 million.
Financial rewards peak if bitcoin hovers around $95,000 at settlement, generating positive aggregate returns anywhere between $90,000 and $100,000. Beyond those boundaries, the return drops to zero, meaning the trader risks forfeiting the entire $3.17 million spent to open the position.
Put differently, the investor appears positioned for bitcoin to climb from roughly $85,000 up to $95,000 throughout the upcoming four weeks. Such a trajectory maps well onto bitcoin’s daily technical chart, which exhibits minimal visible overhead resistance in the span between $85,000 and $98,000.
Because no historical price hurdles exist in that specific corridor where bitcoin previously stalled or consolidated, existing momentum could naturally drive values toward $98,000 in the short term, assuming all other conditions remain stable.
This butterfly transaction was far from the sole indicator of expanding bullish sentiment. Market participants additionally amplified their appetite for upward price exposure via call options, thereby driving short-term risk reversals higher.
Laser Digital noted in a communication provided to CoinDesk that risk reversals have demonstrated volatility, with front-end risk reversals tilting sharply toward calls during the climb to $85,000 before pulling back slightly.
Furthermore, the options landscape indicates a wider affinity for volatility across prominent digital tokens. Coinbase Markets reported on Monday that options were pricing standard deviation movements of 8.9% for XRP, 8.0% for SOL, 6.9% for ether, and 5.0% for bitcoin leading up to September 27.
These metrics quantify anticipated price fluctuations rather than directional projections, pointing to XRP as carrying the highest relative volatility risk.
Glassnode observed that bitcoin has successfully reclaimed all of its primary long-term moving averages. Having spent approximately 300 days underneath those benchmarks, this structural condition has completely reversed, and maintaining position above them is essential to preserving a sustained bull market.
Additionally, the daily candle for Monday closed comfortably above the peak from May, clearing crucial resistance and establishing yet another upward breakout. The subsequent major overhead barrier, representing the zone of previous market rejection, sits at the January high above $98,000.
Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/09/22/a-usd3-2-million-bitcoin-butterfly-option-trade-bets-on-usd95-000-by-the-end-of-october.
