MSCI Drops Strategy From Global Index, Threatening Bitcoin Accumulation Strategy

Updated Nov 12, 2026, 4:44 a.m. EST. Published Nov 12, 2026, 2:00 a.m. EST.

5 min read

Summary

MSCI will remove Strategy, the largest publicly traded holder of bitcoin, from its global equity benchmarks after trading closes on Nov. 30 under updated criteria excluding nonoperating firms.
The loss of passive investment demand could reduce Strategy’s capacity to secure capital for bitcoin purchases, although several analysts note that the anticipated removal is largely reflected in the current share price.

Index compiler MSCI confirmed it will drop Strategy MSTR$111.61·Market Closed, the biggest publicly listed owner of BTC, from its widely followed global equity benchmarks, including the MSCI USA Index, following the conclusion of trading on Nov. 30.

The decision stems from a newly introduced screening metric for “non-operating” businesses implemented on Oct. 15, which similarly resulted in the removal of Tokyo-based bitcoin treasury enterprise Metaplanet (3350) from the MSCI Japan Small Cap Index.

Market experts indicated that this development might constrain Strategy’s capacity to acquire additional coins, even though much of the effect may already be factored into the stock valuation.

MSCI benchmarks consist of stock portfolios that numerous investment funds are required to replicate. When an equity is eliminated, the funds tracking that specific index must liquidate their holdings, generating downward price pressure. This exclusion does not remove the stock from public exchanges, nor does it compel Strategy to liquidate its bitcoin reserves. As of this report, Strategy possesses 850,364 BTC, valued at $62.6 billion.

Passive selling

The extent of potential selling pressure facing the MSTR market in the coming sessions varies depending on the evaluating institution, with organizations such as BloFin Research calculating the figure at approximately 13 million shares.

“MSCI-tracking funds would need to sell an estimated 13M shares, roughly 3.1% of shares outstanding and less than one day’s typical trading volume,” it stated in an X post.

This projection aligns with Strategy’s internal assessment. In its official reply to the MSCI consultation, Strategy indicated that funds mirroring MSCI global investable benchmarks maintain about 13 million of its equities, representing 3.1% of its common shares outstanding.

This amount remains below a single day of trading volume and equals roughly $1.6 billion based on Wednesday valuations.

Conversely, JPMorgan projected in November 2025 that the MSCI removal could instigate roughly $2.8 billion in capital outflows. The financial institution noted that this total could climb to $8.8 billion if competing index creators implemented parallel changes. Nevertheless, the bank’s projection relied on an initial MSCI draft rather than the definitive regulations enacted during this review.

Impact on fresh BTC purchases

Market observers believe that this mandatory liquidation, alongside the subsequent loss of passive benchmark demand, could influence how Strategy finances upcoming bitcoin acquisitions.

“The bigger risk is Strategy’s Bitcoin accumulation model. Strategy relies heavily on capital raising to fund BTC purchases. Losing passive index demand could put further pressure on its mNAV premium, already near 1.08x. A shrinking premium makes new equity issuance less accretive, potentially slowing future Bitcoin accumulation,” BloFin Research explained.

To grasp this dynamic, one must examine mNAV, a metric measuring the market valuation of the corporation relative to its underlying bitcoin reserves. Readings above 1 indicate that investors value the equity higher than the stored bitcoin assets, whereas readings below 1 imply the converse.

Historically, Strategy has financed its bitcoin purchases through convertible debt, preferred equities, and common stock offerings via an at-the-market facility. This strategy depends on the equity trading at a premium, meaning an mNAV multiple exceeding 1x. Because every newly issued equity yields more capital than the corresponding bitcoin backing it, the issuance generates accretive value, elevating the bitcoin amount per share for current investors. Near an mNAV of 1x, issuing stock generates minimal value, and below 1x, the process becomes dilutive.

The disappearance of passive demand could compress that premium further, impairing the purchasing mechanism.

mNAV has already compressed

Strategy’s mNAV has already contracted from a high of 3.4x in November 2024 down to approximately 1.08x as of this writing.

The resulting adjustment in capital allocation is apparent in the Nov. 9 regulatory filing covering the week ending Nov. 8. The enterprise generated $283.8 million through the disposal of 2.05 million common equities, yet allocated merely $81.9 million toward bitcoin purchases (1,036 BTC). The majority—$188.3 million—was directed toward repurchasing its STRC preferred equities, while $13.6 million was allocated to cash reserves.

That same documentation indicates a cash stockpile of $4.77 billion as of Nov. 8. Strategy utilized $21.1 million from this reserve during that week to satisfy preferred dividend obligations, reporting zero bitcoin liquidations.

Consequently, the worst-case scenario may already be reflected in market pricing, according to Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research.

“With the NAV premium near 1.0, the stock offers less leverage to Bitcoin, and we expect [the stock] to keep underperforming,” Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, told CoinDesk. “We don’t expect any spillover into Bitcoin itself. Since Bitcoin peaked a year ago, treasury companies have had less and less impact on the market, and as their NAV premiums compressed, many investors realized these companies haven’t added value beyond the Bitcoin they hold.”

He clarified that while certain benchmark-oriented funds will be obligated to dispose of MSTR shares, those equities should attract buyers at slightly reduced price levels.

“This outcome has been widely expected, so most of it is already priced in. Historically, these announcements have been priced in well before the actual event, which in this case is next month,” he stated.

He added that numerous funds already held underweight positions in the stock, meaning their holdings fall short of benchmark allocations, which could mitigate the anticipated selling volume.

Derin Olenik, an independent bitcoin analyst, maintains a less sanguine perspective. Although his projections for prospective MSTR selling align with JPMorgan’s forecasts, he perceives a greater detriment regarding damage to the broader institutional adoption narrative that underpins the entire treasury business model.

“Confirmation of exclusion could bring an estimated $2.8B+ of selling pressure and $11B+ if other indexes followed. Beyond the immediate impact, this will be a major blow to the ‘institutional adoption’ narrative that the entire model is increasingly hinging on,” he stated.

What comes next?

For Thielen, the solution lies in a different category of bitcoin-holding entity, one that operates akin to an investment manager rather than simply hoarding BTC without generating utility beyond storage.

“To change that, treasury companies need to act more like asset managers,” he stated. “They should put their asset base to work with yield strategies and show investors they can outperform the market. That takes a different skill set from financial engineering.”

Olenik expressed a similar sentiment more bluntly, describing the index removal as a welcome departure.

“It’s time to stop promoting the problem and start promoting the solution: Treasury 2.0.”

In short, corporations should transition from merely amassing coins to constructing utility around them.

“The evolution towards BTC-native operating models. Acquiring BTC for a productive purpose. Building Bitcoin infrastructure, driving network adoption and monetary utility, and deploying, earning and compounding sats for shareholders through real operations at the forefront of the emerging agentic era,” he observed.

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