TD Cowen increased its bitcoin predictions while maintaining its $260 price target for Strategy (MSTR), noting that equity dilution and corporate financial commitments will likely restrict upward potential for investors.
Market analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete preserved their Buy recommendation, explaining that elevated bitcoin valuations should improve Strategy’s profit generation. Still, the firm’s preferred-stock buybacks and reserve accumulation may diminish those financial advantages for common MSTR participants.
The analysts noted in a Thursday publication that capital structure growth and the resulting dilution reduce the per-share advantages.
Strategy equity declined by approximately 2.5% to reach $150, putting the stock down nearly 5% for the year. Even so, the equity has rebounded from late June through mid-August, when it faced difficulty rising past $100.
The target set by TD Cowen suggests a potential increase of roughly 73% relative to its present valuation.
More bitcoin against competing claims
The analysts explained that acquiring additional bitcoin does not automatically result in bigger profits for Strategy investors. Market participants must also factor in the enterprise’s liabilities and preferred equities, such as STRC, STRF, and STRD, whose owners hold seniority over regular MSTR shareholders.
Taking those factors into account, the amount of bitcoin owned per MSTR share has been less powerful, according to TD Cowen.
Strategy allocates a portion of its raised capital toward establishing cash reserves and backing its collection of preferred shares, instead of purchasing bitcoin right away. While this strategy can draw in buyers and finance later acquisitions, it leaves less capital available to buy bitcoin immediately.
According to Saylor Tracker, Strategy’s valuation has bounced back to about one times its net asset value after dropping to a low of 0.63 in June. The company’s bitcoin reserves, which now total an exact 848,000 BTC, hold approximately $4.5 billion in paper gains.
Brighter bitcoin projections
The revised forecast from TD Cowen anticipates bitcoin reaching around $109,000 by the conclusion of 2026, and climbing to $280,000 by the year 2029.
This perspective is more optimistic than the fourth-quarter baseline estimate of $80,000 to $90,000 put forward by QCP Capital.
On Thursday, bitcoin changed hands near $81,300 and continues to trade down 9% over the course of the year despite its latest bounce.
Originally published at https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-08-strategy-shareholders-face-dilution-drag-despite-brighter-bitcoin-forecasts-td-cowen-418066.
