Bitcoin (BTC) enters September continuing its struggle against critical overhead resistance as financial markets adopt a more hawkish stance on Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Key Takeaways:
- Traders are pricing in a 60% probability of an interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve in September, with crucial employment reports arriving this week.
- Crude oil has seen renewed price swings following recent American strikes in Iran as well as a historic bilateral oil agreement between the US and Venezuela.
- Bitcoin continues trading underneath an essential resistance band beneath $86,000 as the August monthly candle approaches its close.
September Rate Hike Expectations Rebound Post-Jackson Hole
The upcoming week will feature the publication of several US labor market indicators, each poised to influence forecasts regarding policy actions by the Federal Reserve.
The central bank is under heightened scrutiny following the recent Jackson Hole economic conference, where freshly appointed chair Kevin Warsh delivered his first keynote address. Warsh offered little explicit guidance on upcoming policy direction, asserting that forward guidance—a mainstay of Federal Reserve messaging for decades—has “overstayed its welcome.”
Addressing inflation, Warsh labeled current figures as excessively elevated, despite softer-than-projected readings for both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) gauge in July.
“Each of these broad inflation measures have fallen significantly from their highs of a few years ago, but progress through the past couple of years has been more modest, and while this summer’s PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved,” he stated.
Financial markets reacted by boosting projections for upcoming rate hikes, shifting back to favored odds for a 25-basis-point increase during the Fed’s September gathering, according to data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. As of writing, those probabilities stand slightly below 60%, climbing from 41.4% recorded the preceding week.
However, interest rate projections might be tempered depending on incoming labor market metrics. Friday will bring the release of the August nonfarm payrolls report. Forecasters anticipate the economy added 50,000 jobs during the month, contrasting with the contraction of 23,000 jobs registered in June.
Prior to nonfarm payrolls, private payroll figures are scheduled for Wednesday, with weekly initial jobless claims landing on Thursday.
“All eyes are on the labor market,” financial commentary outlet The Kobeissi Letter noted in an update on X, pointing out that this represents the final batch of employment reports ahead of the September policy announcement.
Kobeissi emphasized substantial historical downward revisions in employment figures, indicating that softening employment conditions could present an obstacle to further policy tightening by the Fed. Referencing numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), it highlighted that another 79,000 jobs were subtracted across the 12-month period ending in March of this year.
“This follows last year’s record -911,000 revision and marks the 4th consecutive annual downward adjustment, matching the streak that ended in 2010 after the 2008 Financial Crisis,” the outlet stated, summarizing that the job market has been “weaker than initially reported for years.”
Oil Prices Climb on US-Iran Escalation
Energy commodities are driving macroeconomic market turbulence at the start of the week because of converging geopolitical developments.
Renewed military strikes carried out by the United States against Iranian targets pushed Brent crude back over $90 a barrel on Monday, approaching its highest mark in a week. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surpassed $85 per barrel, posting a 2.5% intraday gain at publication time.
European equity benchmarks faced downward momentum amid these developments, with Germany’s DAX declining 0.7%. US President Donald Trump signaled that Iran’s Kharg Island oil terminal was targeted once again. Through a post on Truth Social, Trump shared an AI-created video depicting explosions across oil facilities, stating the island was “being blown to smithereens.”
These strikes arrived on the heels of a landmark energy agreement providing the United States with substantial authority over Venezuelan petroleum reserves. Statistics provided by Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodriguez, reported by outlets including CNBC, outlined a target daily output of 1.5 million barrels, involving aggregate reserves of 65 billion barrels with an estimated current value near $5.4 trillion.
On Truth Social, Trump labeled the transaction the “biggest oil deal in history.”
Bitcoin Tests Multiple 50-Week Moving Averages
Bitcoin encountered selling pressure late ahead of Sunday’s weekly finish, briefly sliding underneath its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $77,269, according to TradingView data.
However, spot prices successfully defended the moving average—which had previously been identified as crucial support—for the second straight week. Building on its recent surge, BTC previously reclaimed this indicator on a weekly closing basis for the first time since November 2025.
In his recent market analysis on X, Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft emphasized the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) situated at $80,307. On the weekly timeframe, BTC/USD has yet to close above this line, a milestone that historically served as a precursor to continued price appreciation, he explained.
August Monthly Close Meets Heavy Resistance
Entering the August monthly close, Bitcoin buyers face a major hurdle while monthly returns for BTC/USD sit near 25%.
Even after witnessing the largest short liquidation event in crypto market history, market participants have been unable to decisively retake overhead resistance above $80,000, market observers note.
“Bitcoin is still hovering beneath the Macro Downtrending resistance, having upside wicked briefly beyond it,” technical trader and market analyst Rekt Capital stated in his latest market assessment on X.
“Still the pivotal resistance and by staying below it, Bitcoin continues its series of Macro Lower Highs.”
Rekt Capital argued that breaking through this key resistance level would carry notable ramifications for Bitcoin’s four-year market cycle, indicating that the prevailing bear market phase would conclude more quickly than past cycles.
Beyond that technical boundary, further resistance has materialized due to dense order book ask liquidity on exchanges. This wall of offers reaches up to $86,000, meaning greater buying volume is required to secure a sustainable breakout.
“Every overhead structure we track now sits between $81K and $86K; that band is where the recovery’s demand meets its test,” Glassnode noted in a research report last week.
Whale Accumulation Seen as Essential for Continued Uptrend
Glassnode metrics indicate that 1.05 million BTC held by long-term investors have an acquisition cost between $83,000 and $86,000. Long-term holders are defined as wallet addresses retaining their coins without spending for at least six months.
In supplementary research released this week, onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant highlighted the decisive role large-scale investors could play heading into September. Their metrics revealed that whale entities drove buying demand throughout August, whereas smaller retail holders took profits or sold as their positions broke even.
“From 1–30 August, wallets with 100+ BTC added about 60,000 BTC. Wallets with 1–100 BTC sold about 33,000. Wallets under 1 BTC sold about 14,000,” the firm explained in a blog post on Monday.
“That split is the month. Large holders absorbed the breakout. Smaller holders used the rally as an exit.”
CryptoQuant noted that this bullish interpretation of large-holder accumulation would need to be reevaluated if these large wallets begin distributing their newly purchased coins below the $80,000 threshold.
Originally published at https://cointelegraph.com/markets/markets-pivot-to-september-fed-rate-hike-five-things-to-know-in-bitcoin-this-week?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound.
