During the most recent bond market selloff, Bitcoin and gold tracked each other much more closely, driving their 90-day correlation to a nearly six-year peak according to Bitwise figures.
This correlation climbed after yields on longer-term U.S. government debt advanced and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent boosted acquisitions of long-dated bonds. André Dragosch, who leads European research for Bitwise, pointed out in a Wednesday client memorandum that Bitcoin surged 22.4% over the subsequent week—marking its strongest weekly performance since March 2024—while gold gained roughly 5% and equities declined.
Dragosch mentioned that the last comparable metric occurred back in 2020, around the period when national governments and central banking institutions deployed fiscal and monetary stimulus to counter the COVID pandemic. Based on Bitwise’s 90-day metric, Bitcoin also held a negative correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index at the close of August, suggesting that pressures facing the greenback act as tailwinds for both Bitcoin and gold, as reported by the organization.
"When situations intensify and macroeconomic pressures grow heavy, market participants increasingly treat Bitcoin and gold interchangeably while managing mounting currency debasement dangers," Dragosch stated. "Within those contexts, Bitcoin recently began resembling a magnified version of gold."
What happened to the stock correlation?
Researchers at Glassnode highlighted in a Tuesday briefing that Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 drifted down toward zero during the August upward surge. American equities remained mostly unchanged at that point. Nonetheless, the analysts noted that abrupt decorrelations occurring during sovereign bond selloffs have historically proven "transient," signaling local market exhaustion rather than fundamental structural regime changes.
Simultaneously, Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas observed that over the preceding six months, Bitcoin exhibited a weaker correlation to U.S. shares than gold, small-cap stocks, emerging markets, and even Treasury securities. "Bitcoin has consistently registered around .40; it is gold and Treasuries that have grown significantly more correlated," he explained. "Admittedly a brief timeframe, but still noteworthy and dismantles the argument that it trades just like the QQQ."
Regarding price movement, Bitcoin pushed past $80,000 near the end of August following a 25% monthly advance, prior to pulling back toward $76,000. Glassnode pointed out a concentration of long-term investor supply positioned between $83,000 and $86,000, whereas its primary accumulation support zone lies between $62,000 and $65,000, with the asset currently changing hands between those levels near $77,600.
According to Glassnode data, with Bitcoin trading near $78,000 late in August, 68% of the circulating supply sat in profit, contrasted with 65% when valuations hovered at a comparable mark back in May. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds pulled in an average of $290 million daily at the peak of the rally, while daily ETF turnover sustained levels close to $3 billion.
Originally published at https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-09-03-bitcoin-gold-correlation-hits-six-year-high-but-analysts-question-whether-equity-decoupling-will-last-413437.
