Glassnode reports that the primary cost-basis cluster for bitcoin among long-term holders sits between $84,000 and $85,000, alongside open interest dropping to its lowest point since March.
Bitcoin (BTC) changed hands near $84,000 on Tuesday, visiting a zone holding a greater concentration of long-term holder supply than any other price interval, per Glassnode data.
Bitcoin reached as high as $87,000 last week prior to experiencing a correction. Glassnode had previously pointed out the $81,000 to $86,000 zone as the critical supply range for long-term investors. Nevertheless, analysts observed on Tuesday that the densest long-term holder bracket is now gathered between $84,000 and $85,000.
Bitcoin long-term holder supply cluster. Image: Glassnode.
Capital.com analyst Daniela Hathorn also highlighted $87,000 to $88,000 as immediate resistance during the previous week while flagging $84,000 to $85,000 as the initial level to monitor during a pullback, with JPMorgan designating $85,000 as its estimated production cost, which could offer relief to miners and mitigate the threat of compulsory liquidations if sustained.
BTC price. Image: The Block.
In the midst of these price fluctuations, coin-denominated open interest has declined to its lowest mark since March and sits nearly 20% under August levels, according to Glassnode figures, even as bitcoin trades about 35% above its August bottom of $62,000. Bitfinex analysts mentioned that a significant portion of the leverage built up during the push to $87,000 has largely been flushed out, and perpetual positioning now hovers near neutral.
Bitcoin open interest. Image: Glassnode.
Ranging into quarter-end
“Our base case is that bitcoin consolidates between the $84,000 long-term holder cluster and the $87,722 yearly open into the monthly and quarterly close on 30 September,” the Bitfinex analysts stated on Monday. “Spot demand, rather than prevailing financial conditions, is expected to determine how the range resolves.”
Concurrently, TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza mentioned in a Tuesday client note following the BitcoinTreasuries Conference in New York that institutional conversations spent less time debating whether investors should hold bitcoin and more time examining how to deploy it. Vitanza indicated that the next phase for bitcoin could be propelled not merely by incremental spot demand, but by the capital-markets infrastructure growing up around it.
On the macroeconomic front, Bitfinex noted that conditions have tightened following the Federal Reserve’s rate hike earlier this month. The 10-year Treasury yield finished at 5.17% on Sept. 25, moving up from 5.01% on Sept. 16, while the 10-year inflation-indexed yield climbed to 2.83% from 2.68%. “The principal constraint on BTC this week is therefore the rising real return on low-risk assets, not sentiment,” the analysts stated. “Any advance must be carried by spot demand.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, told The Block that climbing crude prices are likewise exerting pressure on non-yielding assets such as bitcoin. “As long as that upside risk to energy persists, bitcoin is likely to struggle to recapture upside momentum,” Rodda observed, adding that bitcoin’s technical arrangement still appears “quite constructive.”
Focus now shifts toward the August core PCE release on Sept. 30, while Bitfinex also highlighted bitcoin’s resilience against historically weak September and third-quarter trends. “The current strength seen, despite macro headwinds, points to an asymmetric bid that has outpaced other assets,” the analysts concluded.
Originally published at https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-09-29-bitcoin-tests-long-term-holder-supply-cluster-leverage-clears-analysts-say-417162.
