According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin may encounter a short-term correction because the onchain unrealized profit margin for short-term traders has climbed to a 21-month peak.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, stated in a Tuesday report that Bitcoin closing above its 365-day moving average last week officially validated a fresh bull market. Furthermore, the platform’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index currently registers at an “extremely bullish” 90 out of 100.
Nevertheless, Moreno pointed out that after bitcoin touched an eight-month high of $87,400, multiple signals indicate that the upward momentum is fading and a pullback could be on the horizon.
Profit-taking increases
The report highlighted that the onchain unrealized profit margin for short-term traders has advanced to 33%, marking its highest point since December 2024.
Moreno explained that profit margins sitting at comparable levels have traditionally prompted traders to lock in gains since a greater volume of unrealized profits becomes available.
Moreno observed that Bitcoin participants locked in 25,700 BTC in profits on September 22, representing the single largest day of 2026, and noted that this metric confirms participants were securing gains while bitcoin traded close to recent peaks.
He mentioned that such profit-taking activity following a robust price surge has historically preceded local market peaks.
Indications of selling have likewise surfaced within the altcoin sector. The cumulative seven-day volume of altcoin inbound transactions climbed to 76,000, reaching its highest level since October 17, 2025. Moreno pointed out that this date fell 11 days after bitcoin attained its prior all-time high.
Additionally, the count of wallet addresses depositing altcoins onto trading platforms grew to 51,000 over the identical timeframe, establishing a high not seen since October 2025. Moreno noted that this expansion was widespread rather than being caused by a handful of large holders.
“When holders move coins to exchanges, they usually intend to sell,” Moreno wrote.
Demand cools
Interest in Bitcoin is likewise decelerating across both spot and derivatives markets. Moreno mentioned that implied spot demand keeps shrinking, dropping by 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days. Meanwhile, the expansion of speculative futures demand—which he characterized as the primary catalyst behind the recent surge—decelerated from 164,000 BTC on September 14 to 16,000 BTC on September 29.
“Without fresh demand, rallies struggle to extend,” Moreno said. “With spot demand still in contraction and futures growth stalling, near-term upside becomes harder to sustain.”
Bitcoin support levels
In the event of a bitcoin pullback, Moreno identifies the 365-day moving average near $80,000 as the initial support zone. Additional support rests at the 200-day moving average around $71,000 alongside the onchain realized price for traders close to $67,000, he added.
Moreno stated that a correction moving toward these thresholds would signify a “healthy consolidation” inside an early-stage bull market instead of a complete reversal, provided the support levels remain intact.
“Still a bull market — but showing signs of fatigue,” Moreno concluded. “Stretched profit margins, record 2026 profit-taking, exploding altcoin inflows and cooling demand warn of a near-term correction.”
Originally published at https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-09-29-cryptoquant-says-bitcoin-correction-could-near-traders-unrealized-profit-21-month-high-417206.
