Bitcoin is currently working to pierce through an “inflection frontier” that has previously sparked surges toward new macro peaks.
Key points:
- Bitcoin (BTC) could advance toward fresh all-time highs if it successfully clears its 20-month moving average located at $87,165, as stated by CryptoQuant.
- The market cycle signals metric indicates that BTC/USD is positioned to regain this “inflection frontier,” which was surrendered back in December 2025.
- CryptoQuant’s bull-bear market cycle gauge continues to point to Bitcoin remaining inside an active bull market.
Analysis: Bitcoin “reset” complete as key trend line reappears
Data provided by the onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows that BTC/USD has initiated a renewed contest against its 20-month simple moving average (SMA).
Standing at $87,165 as of October 16, the 20-month SMA serves as the foundational baseline from which the widely-used Bollinger Bands metric is constructed. This indicator subsequently powers CryptoQuant’s market cycle signals utility, which aims to locate Bitcoin’s exact phase within its broader market cycle.
Bollinger Bands leverage standard deviation to plot upper and lower boundaries surrounding the 20-month SMA. At present, these limits are positioned at $121,640 and $52,694 respectively. CryptoQuant’s measurement defines the region situated between the lower boundary and the SMA as an “accumulation base,” whereas the SMA itself is designated as an “inflection frontier,” representing a prior area of investor surrender when prices slipped below it from above, most recently observed in December 2025.
BTC/USD one-month chart with Bollinger Bands. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
With Bitcoin now getting ready to contest this capitulation boundary from a position underneath, historical precedent demonstrates that winning breakouts have historically generated brand-new cycle peaks.
“Just over a year after the all-time high (ATH) of $124,709 on October 6, 2025, the market has concluded its ‘reset,’” summarized CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain in a blog post.
Even though Bollinger Bands are not designed to supply direct buy or sell triggers, the market cycle signals feature observes “smart money” locking in gains once BTC/USD touches its upper threshold. Even though this threshold currently rests just beneath Bitcoin’s most recent record high of $126,200 achieved in October 2025, CryptoQuant anticipates the subsequent advance pushing past that boundary.
“While retail fears the current $82,442, thinking it’s the ‘top,’ the on-chain indicator BTC: Market Cycle Signals reveals that we are just warming up,” GugaOnChain added, alluding to a current BTC price support zone.
Bitcoin market cycle signals chart. Source: CryptoQuant
The 20-month SMA shares confluence with Bitcoin’s opening level for 2026 at $87,490, reinforcing its potency as a barrier. As Cointelegraph reported, extensive blocks of sell liquidity persist nearby across exchange order books.
Onchain data shows entrenching Bitcoin bull market
CryptoQuant maintains an overall positive outlook regarding Bitcoin’s developing bull market despite cryptocurrency and risk-oriented assets navigating macroeconomic headwinds.
Related: Here’s what happened in crypto today
Earlier this week, contributor XWIN Research Japan highlighted metrics drawn from three onchain indicators which they argued provided justification for “cautious optimism” concerning the return of bullish momentum as October concludes.
Back in late August, CEO Ki Young Ju officially declared that the bear market had concluded based on readings extracted from the bull-bear market cycle indicator. This tool aggregates composite data originating from multiple onchain profitability metrics, displaying an acceleration in upward momentum with a value of 0.186 on its scale compared to 0.042 back in August.
Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle Indicator. Source: CryptoQuant
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
Originally published at https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-seeks-20-month-trend-line-reclaim-before-new-record-highs-cryptoquant?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound.
