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Bitcoin BTC$75,889.78 has entered each of the past three United States midterm elections licking its wounds. This instance is different.
How? Examine where the price of bitcoin stands relative to its 200-day average, which is a commonly monitored indicator for long-term market direction. At the time of writing, BTC was changing hands near $76,990, roughly 5.2% above its 200-day moving average of about $73,169. When an asset trades above its 200-day average, it is considered to be within a long-term bullish phase.
During 2014, 2018, and 2022, conditions on midterm election day were completely opposite, because bitcoin traded beneath that average by approximately 35%, 9%, and 22% respectively. Those three years were bear market periods, aligning with the four-year halving cycle, which typically sees bitcoin reach a peak nearly 18 months following a halving before sliding into a year-long bear market.
The year 2026 was anticipated to follow suit after BTC peaked past $126,000 in October of the previous year. However, this year’s bear market proved to be both mild and front-loaded, meaning the majority of the decline occurred throughout January and February, which explains why we are already situated above the 200-day simple moving average.
This positive setup appears even stronger when reviewing historical data, which indicates that BTC historically rallies substantially during the 12 months subsequent to midterms. Nevertheless, DWF Labs notes that it exhibits choppy behavior in the near term.
“The first few months following a midterm have historically proven choppy to slightly bearish for BTC, yet it has traded higher 12 months later every single time. We are adopting an approach of cautious optimism,” Martin Lee, research lead at DWF Labs, explained via email. “History favors BTC across a 12-month timeframe, but anticipate near-term volatility, particularly if the conflict escalates and artificial intelligence investments continue placing pressure on risk assets.”
Furthermore, the electoral outcome itself could dictate near-term market direction, alongside other elements such as exchange-traded fund flows and macroeconomic reports like the upcoming U.S. employment figures scheduled for Friday and their subsequent influence on Federal Reserve interest rate projections. Remain vigilant!
For analysis concerning today’s activity in alternative cryptocurrencies and derivatives, refer to Crypto Markets Today. For a comprehensive overview of events scheduled for this week, check CoinDesk’s Crypto Week Ahead.
What’s trending
- Binance has spent half its SAFU bitcoin, about $580 million worth, data shows (CoinDesk): Binance has depleted half of the bitcoin contained within the emergency reserve established to safeguard users. The address published by Binance as its Secure Asset Fund for Users wallet held slightly above 7,500 BTC.
- Bitcoin’s latest chart signal looks a lot like the ones before its big crashes (CoinDesk): Bitcoin’s price chart is exhibiting a warning signal, mirroring those observed ahead of the price drops in February and June. This signal originates from the Guppy Multiple Moving Average, an indicator closely followed in financial markets to evaluate short-term and long-term trends.
- Dollar drifts on Mideast, midterm risks; Aussie and yuan dip (Reuters): The dollar weakened on Tuesday as traders evaluated uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Iran relations and the U.S. midterm elections, while the Australian dollar and China’s yuan faced downward pressure following local monetary policy decisions. The euro advanced to $1.1201, the British pound climbed to $1.3421, and the Japanese yen reached 157.8 per dollar.
- Tech losses weigh on global markets ahead of US midterm elections, while oil prices rise (AP): Global equities dropped and U.S. stock index futures also retreated on Tuesday as participants awaited the results of the U.S. midterm elections. Crude oil prices moved higher following U.S. strikes on Iranian targets within the Strait of Hormuz.
Today’s signal
BTC VIX, BVIV. (TradingView)
The chart illustrates daily price movements within Volmex’s Bitcoin 30-Day Implied Volatility Index, frequently referred to as the “Bitcoin VIX,” presented in a candlestick format.
This index gauges the level of volatility traders anticipate for bitcoin throughout the upcoming 30 days.
BVIV recently broke upward from a descending triangle, which is a technical analysis pattern widely interpreted as an indicator of a potential upward price movement.
The timing is significant, as several potential market-catalyzing events are slated for this week, commencing with Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections and concluding with Friday’s nonfarm payroll data release.
Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/11/03/bitcoin-is-breaking-a-midterm-election-pattern-going-back-to-2014.
