Although Bitcoin BTC$84,368.98 is lower today, its broader market trajectory conveys an alternative narrative.
The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages of its valuation stand a single crossover away from an entirely bullish configuration, where the short-, medium-, and long-term directions of the cryptocurrency all simultaneously point upward. Such an event would mark the first occurrence since 2025.
This configuration is defined by the 50-day moving average resting above the 100-day metric, and the 100-day metric positioned above the 200-day average. The market is very close to this setup. At the time of writing, the 50-day moving average sits comfortably ahead of the others at $79,495. Simultaneously, the 100-day average is tracking at $79,493, climbing steadily and preparing to surpass the 200-day average, which stands at $79,539. Once this occurs, all three will align sequentially to demonstrate upward momentum across every relevant timeframe.
“That crossover would restore the order of 50-day above 100-day above 200-day for the first time since the previous alignment formed on June 24, 2025,” Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based FIU-registered Giottus exchange, told CoinDesk.
Traders rely on moving averages to evaluate trend directions. When shorter-term moving averages exceed longer-term benchmarks, it indicates that current prices outpace historical ones, serving as an indicator of upward pressure.
Consequently, this approaching indicator implies that Bitcoin’s price recovery spanning the previous three months remains genuine. The asset’s value jumped by more than 40% to reach $87,000 throughout the third quarter. Recently, however, this upward climb paused near $85,000 due to a persistent upward trend within the U.S. Dollar Index.
“To state a fact, the latest signal confirms the recovery has endured,” Subburaj stated.
Historical alignments have occasionally heralded substantial rallies. One such setup materialized on October 27, 2020, when BTC changed hands near $13,600, persisting until May 2021. By that stage, Bitcoin climbed to a then-unprecedented peak surpassing $64,000. Another occurrence validated in early November 2023 remained active through May 2024, during which time Bitcoin more than doubled from approximately $35,000 to $73,000.
Conversely, other instances yielded far more modest rewards. The bullish setup established in June 2025 endured for 97 days, yet Bitcoin managed only a slight increase, moving from roughly $106,000 to $112,000. An analogous configuration in June 2024 persisted for a mere 20 days, during which Bitcoin dropped by roughly 10%.
“The crossover strengthens the trend case, but it does not guarantee its continuation,” Subburaj noted. “The asset’s price behaviour afterwards will determine whether it becomes a sustained bull-market structure or another short-lived alignment.”
He clarified that the true test moving forward is whether Bitcoin’s spot price can maintain its position above the 50-day average.
“The more consequential test is whether Bitcoin can hold the 50-day average during a correction,” he concluded.
Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/10/05/bitcoin-is-about-to-get-a-major-bullish-signal-it-hasn-t-had-in-over-a-year.
