Bitcoin has climbed roughly 7% throughout September following a 25% surge in August. Ever since 2013, every single instance of a profitable August has subsequently led to a down September. With a couple of days left in the month, finishing in positive territory would shatter that historical trend and secure three straight monthly increases stretching from July to September. This outcome would additionally push the third-quarter performance above 40%, marking its initial green quarter since the third quarter of 2025.
Traditionally, the fourth quarter stands out as bitcoin’s most robust period, with metrics from CoinGlass indicating an average historical increase of nearly 77%. Right now, bitcoin changes hands at $84,000, though the broader economic environment remains unstable. Sovereign bond yields are climbing worldwide, the United States 10-year yield sits past 5.2%, and the MOVE index—tracking fixed-income market turbulence—has climbed past 100, nearing peaks for the year. Crude oil staying past $90 per barrel intensifies worries about inflation, whereas gold dropped roughly 3% on Monday to sit slightly above $4,000 per ounce.
The final quarter presents two additional hurdles for market liquidity and risk tolerance. Anthropic and its rumored November public offering could pull trader focus and funds toward a major upcoming stock market debut, though the exact date and scale of the stock issuance remain unconfirmed. Furthermore, the upcoming American midterm elections in November have the potential to introduce increased market swings as participants evaluate future regulatory directions.
Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/29/bitcoin-is-on-track-to-shatter-a-major-decade-long-streak-as-september-gains-surge.
