A week ago, it felt as if disaster loomed for bitcoin and the broader digital asset market. Most investors anticipated that a Federal Reserve rate increase alongside the rejection of the Clarity Act in the Senate would provoke a severe sell-off.
Yet that drop did not happen—even though the central bank raised rates and the legislation failed to pass in the Senate. Observers remain divided on the catalysts behind this strength and what it implies for the short-term trajectory.
Explaining the resilience
Prior to the Senate ballot on the evening of September 14, bitcoin retreated as pre-vote anxiety mounted and whispers spread regarding legislative gridlock over stablecoin yields and ethical amendments to the measure. Nevertheless, market experts maintain that bitcoin stays shielded from policy hurdles and could pursue its upward path.
By the time lawmakers on Capitol Hill readied their ballots, bitcoin was already approaching the $75,000 threshold, where it seemingly brushed off the failure of the prominent crypto bill.
Derivatives investors had largely foreseen that the Senate would fail to pass the statute, according to Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at Bitfinex. The mild spot reaction demonstrated a market that had not positioned itself for a legislative breakthrough, he noted.
“There was little evidence that traders had positioned themselves for its passage ahead of the vote,” Kooner observed. “With few market participants betting on the bill’s approval, there were correspondingly few positions to unwind. The more important consequence is that the industry remains without clear statutory rules, prolonging regulatory uncertainty.”
The spot valuation held firm despite the 49-50 Senate cloture vote failure sparking an immediate wave of severe liquidations. Within the first 24 hours following the tally, crypto traders holding long, or bullish, futures positions suffered $571 million in liquidations. The outcome also impacted U.S.-oriented crypto infrastructure entities, causing publicly traded firms such as crypto platform Coinbase Global (COIN) and stablecoin issuer Circle Internet (CRCL) to decline 10% in the aftermath, though both equities recovered by Friday.
Price consolidation and positive regulatory outlook
Ilya Kalchev, an analyst with Nexo Dispatch, stated that bitcoin’s bounce-back following the Clarity vote, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, and the flush of long positions points toward consolidation rather than an immediate breakout.
“Bitcoin’s next move is now linked to a catalyst that it does not have yet,” Kalchev explained. “Having absorbed three separate shocks this month without a real repricing, the more likely near-term path is range-bound trading rather than a breakout.”
Kalchev pointed out that $77,950 serves as the initial hurdle bitcoin needs to clear, followed by $79,300 and $80,000. Surpassing $80,000 could clear a path toward $81,400, whereas a dip below $75,000 would jeopardize the recovery.
The regulatory narrative leans toward positive momentum. Following the Senate’s rejection of the Clarity Act, specialists anticipate the SEC and CFTC to deliver results, meaning United States cryptocurrency regulation is shifting entirely away from a permanent legislative framework toward an agency-directed, rules-based model.
Digital-assets executives expect the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to leverage their existing powers to establish guidelines for the sector. That regulatory momentum kicked off Thursday with the SEC introducing a temporary, conditional Innovation Exemption for qualified crypto venues, permitting users to trade tokenized American equities.
The SEC initiative to support tokenized stocks proves that regulatory headway can persist despite the Clarity setback, remarked Luke Davis, founder and chief market strategist at Bull Market Blueprint.
“The SEC’s move gives investors a reason to look beyond the failed vote. I expect bitcoin to finish the year higher, with liquidity conditions and the debasement trade carrying more weight in my forecast than the timing of any individual bill,” Davis stated.
To Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, the United States retains two and a half more years of a pro-crypto regulatory environment, giving the sector ample time to advance.
Hougan remains optimistic regarding crypto. “I don’t think it will stop investors from considering smaller-cap assets with strong tokenomics and links to real-world assets.”
Nevertheless, he added, “had the Clarity Act passed the Senate vote, I think crypto would have been the consensus ‘smart money trade’ in Q4, and prices would have ramped back toward all-time highs.”
Yet because it fell short, “I think the road ahead is bumpier,” Hougan noted. “I don’t think it’s changed too much from where it was Monday before the vote.”
Hougan emphasized that the Clarity Act was and continues to be irrelevant to bitcoin, meaning any further price declines would stem more from sentiment than fundamentals. “If bitcoin sells off in the short-term due to Clarity Act vibes, I’d consider that an opportunity,” he remarked.
No bottom yet?
Vineet Budki, managing partner and chief executive officer of Sigma Capital, argued that bitcoin’s recovery and the clearing of long positions do not yet confirm that a market bottom has been reached.
“I’m not ready to make that call,” Budki said. “I’d rather give it a quarter and let the price action speak before taking a firm directional view.”
Budki mentioned that bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle still needs to play out, cautioning that elevated borrowing costs and a cooling U.S. housing market might still drive investors toward risk aversion. “So my stance is to hold and wait. I’m not leaning firmly bullish or bearish right now.”
The September jobs report due October 2 alongside the Consumer Price Index publication on October 14 represent the upcoming tests, according to Kalchev. Consistent exchange-traded fund inflows or renewed spot accumulation would serve as the definitive signals that bitcoin is gearing up to break out of its current channel.
Bitcoin behaves like a honey badger that operates independently of regulation, declared Mati Greenspan, market strategist and founder of Quantum Economics. “It’s resilient and certainly doesn’t depend on any government or its legislation.”
The community is nevertheless closely tracking the crypto market, though for bitcoin, the absence of new federal legislation in the U.S. is not a decisive factor. “In fact, we’ve historically seen stronger price performance during periods of regulatory pressure than during periods of regulatory clarity,” Greenspan concluded.
Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/09/18/crypto-traders-braced-for-a-total-wipeout-this-week-but-bitcoin-had-other-plans.
