Bitcoin (BTC) can still maintain its historically robust October performance, because onchain metrics indicate a local price bottom is taking shape.
Key points:
- Onchain metrics implied that Bitcoin might still finish October on a strong note, matching historical trends.
- Bitcoin reserves on exchanges remained 1.7% lower compared to mid-September, while large holders refrained from liquidating.
- Calculated demand moved close to shifting into positive territory for the second time in the year 2026.
BTC price analysis flags “potential bottom” signals
Fresh research published on Monday by the digital asset analytics platform CryptoQuant displays onchain parameters in a condition of “cautious optimism.”
Bitcoin continues to navigate mixed macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges, which feature 24-year peaks in United States bond yields, climbing petroleum costs, and lessening capital inflows directed toward exchange-traded funds. These factors have tempered positive sentiment regarding Bitcoin achieving a robust performance throughout October.
“At this point, indications of an eventual bottom are surfacing,” wrote XWIN Research Japan, a contributor for CryptoQuant.
Ever since the beginning of October, conditions have shifted to increasingly favor cryptocurrencies and risk-on assets. XWIN highlights softening expectations regarding interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve extending into 2027, which enhances the probability of improved inflows. Concurrently, the markets anticipate greater visibility regarding the domestic political landscape in the US following the upcoming Midterm Elections.
“Reduced political uncertainty subsequent to the election could assist investors in reevaluating portfolio allocations,” XWIN added.
Bitcoin exchange reserves, calculated demand, and whale balances provide XWIN with grounds to assume that October’s local low could already have transpired.
The supply of BTC located on trading platforms has dropped from 2.726 million tokens on September 20 down to 2.68 million tokens as of Tuesday, representing a 1.7% decline, despite a slight rise over the preceding week.
Bitcoin exchange BTC reserves. Source: CryptoQuant
Simultaneously, the cumulative assets held by high-volume investors, frequently termed whales, stay above 3 million BTC. This group’s inclination to diminish their exposure persisted despite the BTC/USD rate sliding from $87,000 on October 2 down toward $80,000 on October 8.
Bitcoin whale holdings (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin demand data stays bullish in October
Calculated apparent demand, which acts as an indicator contrasting freshly minted BTC against alterations in inactive supply, demonstrates that aggregate demand continues to be supportive.
Related: Bitcoin keeps up pressure on $84K as US stocks skirt Korea tech sell-off
The benchmark remained negative throughout the entirety of 2026, punctuated by a brief timeframe of positive 30-day figures during the latter part of August. Ever since that interval, demand has registered as negative, though it has rebounded close to neutral territory as of the current week.
“Such progressions imply that conditions favorable for a bottom are strengthening. Validation demands consistent ETF inflows, elevated US spot purchasing power, and an ongoing recovery in demand,” stated XWIN.
“‘Uptober’ does not mandate continuous upward movement: a pullback can establish the base for the subsequent rally.”
Bitcoin apparent demand growth. Source: CryptoQuant
Earlier this week, digital asset manager Bitwise noted that third-quarter onchain statistics pointed toward a “crypto spring” following noteworthy historical performance. Meanwhile, CryptoQuant Chief Executive Officer Ki Young Ju proclaimed the arrival of what he perceives as the initiation of a fresh crypto bull market late in August, declaring the preceding bear market to be “over.”
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Originally published at https://cointelegraph.com/markets/cryptoquant-charts-bitcoin-uptober-thesis-valid?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound.
