Ethereum seeks to achieve base layer quantum resistance by December 2029, whereas Bitcoin creators are developing initiatives for a gradual transition to post-quantum signatures.
The Department of Commerce granted up to $100 million individually to Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantinuum as these quantum-computing enterprises push toward expanded, error-corrected systems.
No quantum device is anticipated to threaten Bitcoin or Ethereum by 2029, though shifting wallets and vulnerable public keys may take years and could risk locking funds that are left behind.
Bitcoin and Ethereum software engineers are stepping up efforts to safeguard their platforms against an advanced quantum device capable of cracking the cryptography that secures digital wallets, just as Washington begins injecting substantial capital into the technologies that might eventually achieve it.
On Tuesday, the U.S. Commerce Department finalized a CHIPS Act grant providing up to $100 million apiece to Rigetti, D-Wave, and Quantinuum, while acquiring equity stakes in all three quantum firms. The funding is directed at scaling hardware, production processes, and error-correction frameworks required for bigger, fault-tolerant machines.
This initiative coincides with Ethereum’s core group establishing December 2029 as an internal target to secure the base layer against quantum threats across execution, consensus, and data, operating under the assumption that the so-called “Q-day” could emerge as soon as 2030.
Bitcoin lacks a comparable network-wide target, but development has intensified this year surrounding Bitcoin Improvement Proposal (BIP)-360, which introduces a post-quantum output format, and BIP-361, which outlines a step-by-step transition away from current ECDSA and Schnorr signatures.
Bitcoin investigators and organizations have similarly targeted 2029 as the timeframe by which a viable transition path must be established.
Nevertheless, this does not imply that a quantum device capable of seizing bitcoin or ether is expected to materialize by 2029.
Google Quantum AI projected earlier this year that compromising 256-bit elliptic-curve cryptography could demand under 1,200 error-corrected qubits, representing the fundamental unit of quantum information.
Read more: Why the mind-bending physics of quantum computing is terrifying for bitcoin and crypto
Even so, IBM intends to launch Starling, a fault-tolerant system capable of executing 100 million gates on 200 logical qubits, by 2029. Quantinuum is aiming for hundreds of logical qubits around that same timeframe.
Although those metrics cannot be measured directly against Google’s attack forecast, they illustrate why protocol designers refuse to wait until a cryptographically relevant device actually materializes.
The transition presents a particular challenge for Bitcoin because millions of coins reside in addresses where public keys are already exposed, including approximately 1 million BTC attributed to founder Satoshi Nakamoto. BIP-361 suggests eventually phasing out legacy signatures following a transition phase, a measure that might strand tokens belonging to participants who neglect to transfer them.
Read more: New Bitcoin quantum proposal offers Satoshi Nakamoto a way to prove control without moving BTC
Ethereum encounters a distinct coordination hurdle. Its foundation maintains a dedicated post-quantum team and a definitive objective, but migrating wallets, decentralized applications, and users to fresh signature protocols may persist past the base-layer implementation.
Consequently, the competition is not between quantum computers and contemporary crypto, but rather whether Bitcoin and Ethereum can substitute the cryptography built into hundreds of billions of dollars in assets before hardware developers bridge a rapidly narrowing divide.
Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2026/09/09/bitcoin-and-ethereum-race-quantum-clock-as-u-s-backs-usd300-million-hardware-push.
