Senators are set to hold a procedural vote on the cryptocurrency market structure legislation later today on Tuesday. Bitcoin has pulled back by 3% since hitting $79,530 during the overnight hours, leaving XRP and zcash as the sole major tokens making positive progress.
Ether continues to trade choppy in a narrow range
Valuations for Ethereum’s primary asset, ether (ETH), keep fluctuating within a tight corridor between $2,350 and $2,550, excluding occasional rallies up to $2,600.
This ongoing consolidation comes after a powerful rally in August, indicating that the market is currently searching for a fresh catalyst to drive its next significant directional breakout.
Such a breakout could shift strongly in a bullish direction should the Senate clear a critical procedural vote regarding the Clarity Act, a proposed crypto market-structure bill anticipated to unlock substantial institutional capital for digital assets.
Traders have priced the Clarity Act to fail, and not to pass
According to Yusuf Fakhro, a partner at ARP Digital, the market-implied probability of the Clarity Act passing within the current year has risen to approximately 30% from the low 20s, following the publication of a revised 630-page draft by Senate Republicans that incorporates numerous Democratic provisions to secure the necessary 60 votes.
“Downside from a failed vote is largely priced; a surprise passage is not,” Fakhro noted.
Meanwhile, activity within the derivatives sector has dwindled. Funding rates—the charges paid by investors to maintain leveraged long positions—have drifted near zero, futures premiums have dropped below 5%, and open interest has plateaued.
This lack of heavy leverage means there are no massive clusters of forced liquidations waiting to trigger, but it also leaves prices unanchored, causing every new headline to sway bitcoin further than normal.
Last week served as a clear demonstration of this phenomenon. Bitcoin surged by 5% to reach $81,000 on Thursday following dovish Federal Reserve commentary, only to surrender those entire gains within hours when robust employment figures rekindled expectations for rate hikes.
Underlying demand has remained steady overall. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds absorbed nearly 14,000 BTC throughout the week, which featured an influx of 10,700 BTC on September 3, marking the largest single-day accumulation since April 2025.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its policy decision on Wednesday, with the market leaning toward a quarter-point rate increase, coming just one day after the cloture vote.
Bitcoin puts turn pricier ahead of Senate vote on Clarity, Fed and BOJ rate decisions
Put options for bitcoin, which offer protection against declines in the market, are once again trading at a slight premium compared to bullish call options.
This trend is particularly evident in seven-day options, which encompass a packed macroeconomic agenda: Tuesday’s Senate vote on the Clarity Act, the Federal Reserve’s rate verdict on Wednesday, and the Bank of Japan’s rate decision on Thursday.
“BTC 7d 25D skew went from +2.16v to -1.05v (-3.21v WoW) and 30d from +1.33v to -1.39v (-2.72v), so the put wing is now the marginally richer side on both tenors,” market intelligence platform Laevitas reported on X.
Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are broadly anticipated to raise their benchmark interest rates over the course of the week.
Clarity Act odds decline to 18% on Polymarket
On the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, the implied probability of the Clarity Act being enacted into law in 2026 has dropped sharply to 18%, falling significantly from a high of 30% recorded on Monday.
This downward shift follows statements from several Democratic lawmakers, including potential supporters of the legislation, who voiced reservations regarding the updated ethics provisions.
The Senate is scheduled to vote Tuesday on the Clarity Act market structure bill, which, if enacted, is anticipated to spark a massive institutional inflow into digital assets. Because the procedural vote demands 60 votes, Republican backing on its own will not be sufficient to pass it.
Bitcoin fades to $77,400 before the Senate’s Clarity Act vote
Data from CoinDesk shows that bitcoin exchanged hands at roughly $77,400 during Tuesday morning trading in Europe, remaining flat over a 24-hour window but sitting roughly 3% lower than the $79,530 mark hit overnight, alongside a weekly decline exceeding 1%.
XRP emerged as a notable outperformer, climbing over 2% to reach $1.41, while zcash advanced nearly 3% to approximately $1,149. Conversely, ether, BNB, tron, Hyperliquid’s HYPE token, and dogecoin all dropped by less than 1%, whereas solana remained steady slightly above $101. Over a seven-day period, dogecoin has dropped 7%, HYPE is down 5%, and BNB has slipped 3%.
The Senate is set to hold a procedural vote later Tuesday concerning the Clarity Act, the legislation designed to divide regulatory oversight of digital assets between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Rather than enacting the bill directly, the vote determines whether the measure will proceed to formal debate.
Brian Vieten, a senior research analyst at Siebert Financial, contended that the eventual outcome carries less significance than investors might assume.
“We think the market is a bit too focused on whether Clarity passes,” he stated in an email message to CoinDesk. He added that a failure would simply mean U.S. companies continue operating under the existing SEC and CFTC framework, which could accelerate product launches and tokenization initiatives into 2027 and 2028 rather than canceling them outright.
Achieving forward momentum requires securing 60 votes. That specific threshold will provide the first concrete measure of true Senate backing for the bill.
Originally published at https://www.coindesk.com/business/2026/09/15/live-updates-bitcoin-slides-from-nearly-usd80-000-as-senate-votes-on-clarity-act.
